The betting odds for many outrights for the 2023-24 NBA season are already available, and one of those outrights is the winner of next year’s NBA MVP award.
With a dominant playoff performance and Finals MVP award still fresh on everyone’s mind, it’s no surprise that the 2024 NBA MVP betting markets on most NBA betting sites have Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic as the favorite to take home his third MVP trophy in four years.
A lot of people believed Nikola Jokic should have won his third straight MVP last year, with many seeing his all-time run to the 2023 NBA Championship as vindication. Conversely, the actual 2023 NBA MVP, Joel Embiid, had a very poor playoff performance, which explains why he’s a much lower on the odds table. All odds provided by Betway.
|
Player |
2024 NBA MVP Odds |
|
Nikola Jokic, C (Denver Nuggets) |
+475 |
|
Luka Doncic, PG (Dallas Mavericks) |
+500 |
|
Giannis Antetokounmpo, F (Milwaukee Bucks) |
+550 |
|
Joel Embiid, C (Philadelphia 76ers) |
+700 |
|
Jayson Tatum, F (Boston Celtics) |
+900 |
|
Kevin Durant, F (Phoenix Suns) |
+1,200 |
|
Stephen Curry, PG (Golden State Warriors) |
+1,400 |
|
Devin Booker, SG (Phoenix Suns) |
+2,000 |
|
LeBron James, F (Los Angeles Lakers) |
+2,000 |
|
Trae Young, PG (Atlanta Hawks) |
+2,000 |
|
Damian Lillard, PG (Portland Trail Blazers) |
+2,200 |
|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG (Oklahoma City Thunder) |
+2,200 |
|
Donovan Mitchell, G (Cleveland Cavaliers) |
+2,500 |
|
Kawhi Leonard, F (Los Angeles Clippers) |
+3,300 |
|
Zion Williamson, F (New Orleans Pelicans) |
+3,300 |
While it’s generally a pretty good strategy to keep your focus on the top five names on this preseason list, over the past ten years we’ve seen four MVPs win after starting the season with odds of +1,100 or longer. Also worth noting is that the odds-on favorite during preseason has gone on to win the award just twice since 2014.
Considering the rate of play Nikola Jokic displayed during the Nuggets’ run to the NBA Championship, it’s understandable that the Big Cevapi would be sitting atop this table. After winning the 2021 and 2022 awards with odds longer than +1,600, the Joker is finally getting some respect. He’s still only 28 years old, and the pieces that Denver has surrounded him with are all likely to return for another go ‘round. However, considering how early in the game it is, +475 odds aren’t exactly exciting.
Believe it or not, Luka Doncic has been the preseason outright MVP odds leader in each of the last three seasons. He stayed near the top of the odds table early in those campaigns, but the 24-year-old has generally faltered late in the season, perhaps a symptom of fatigue considering the heavy minutes he plays. Last year, he was right in the mix before an injury ended his chances. With so much tough competition, Doncic will need to lead his Mavericks to a dominant campaign to finally make good on his MVP odds, though at +500, you can find more value elsewhere.
After leading his team to the best record in basketball last year, the Greek Freak still only managed a third place finish in the MVP voting. With the new coach bounce and a fire in his belly after his team’s embarrassing first round loss, Giannis could be in for one of his best seasons. If Antetokounmpo straps in this offseason, makes significant improvements to his jumper, and the Bucks boost the roster around him, he could be a very interesting option at +550.
There have been some disrespected MVPs in recent years, but Joel Embiid has to be up there as one of the most disrespected. A very disappointing showing in the playoffs (again) had a lot of Embiid supporters switching allegiances. Embiid is in a bit of a questionable situation now too. If James Harden stays, the Sixers should be a top team in the East again, which will give the big man a chance at another trophy. But if Harden leaves, the Sixers will free fall down the standings, so his +700 odds are a stay away for us at this juncture.
Other intriguing options on the table include Jayson Tatum at +900, who has felt on the brink of an MVP season for a while now and is still offering reasonably long odds. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are both options as well, but they seem likely to cancel each other out.
It’s surprising to see Trae Young so high on the list, and though the diminutive guard is a great player, we doubt the Hawks will be a good enough team to employ a serious MVP contender. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his Thunder seem like they’re improving by leaps and bounds every year, so he’d be a great long shot choice at +2,200 odds. If Kawhi Leonard stays healthy and plays enough games to be eligible for this award (a massive if, we know), his +3,300 are probably offering the best value of anyone on this list.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
