NBA Monday March 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Thunder (-11.5) vs. Rockets (+11.5) Point Spread Predictions
We assume this massive spread is due to the possibility that Jalen Green is the only healthy Rockets starter in OKC on Monday night, but even if that was the case, this spread we’re seeing at most Canadian betting sites feels excessive. Houston has never been an underdog of more than 7.5 points this year, and they’ve had spreads between +1.5 and +7.5 for the other three matchups with OKC this season (they covered one of three).
Houston isn’t as hot as they were back in January, but they’re in good shape. They suffered a six-game losing streak to start February, but they’ve bounced back to win five of their last eight. And even when Houston loses, they are not often blown out. Since they were blown out by 19 points by this Thunder team on November 8, the Rockets have lost 19 games. Of those 19, only four losses came by 12+ points.
The Thunder see double-digit spreads a lot, but they don’t always fare so well in those scenarios. When they are favored by under 9.0 points, they are 18-9 ATS. However, when they are favored by 9.0+ points, their ATS record plummets to 16-16, including a 6-10 mark in their last 16 such games.
OKC is the 2nd-best ATS team in the league this year overall, but they have some weak points. They’re 6-6 ATS on no rest, and 6-5-1 when they are at a rest disadvantage. Meanwhile, Houston is 7th in the league with an 8-5 ATS record with a rest advantage and their 2nd-best ATS split is as a road dog (8-4-1). They are 4th ATS in the NBA as a road team (17-11-1) and as an underdog (11-7-1). We wouldn’t usually even entertain betting against OKC right now, but this wonky spread gives us no choice.
Best Bet: Houston Rockets +11.5 Point Spread (-110)
Thunder vs. Rockets Over/Under (226.0) Predictions
It’s not usually advised to take the over for a game that features two of the best defenses in basketball, but the game point total trends here were too enticing to pass up. OKC has hit six straight overs coming into this one, and 16 of their last 19 have gone over the 224.0 alternative total we’re going to take at -140 NBA betting odds.
Houston doesn’t hit a ton of overs, but when they do, it’s usually when they are on the road. They hit overs at a 62 percent clip when they’re the away team, and OKC just so happens to hit overs at a 64 percent rate when they’re the home team. Both teams also bring the guns out for their Western Conference foes, with Houston hitting overs 61 percent of the time and OKC doing so 60 percent of the time against intra-conference competition.
Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Over 224.0 (-140)
Thunder vs. Rockets Player Prop Best Bets
The two main stars in this one are SGA on one side and Jalen Green on the other. Try and guess which one we’re gonna bet over and which we’re gonna bet under… You guessed it! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 29+ in nine straight games when he’s taking on Jalen Green’s rockets, averaging just under 33 points in those contests. SGA has hit 30+ in three of five games since the ASB, and he’s averaging 31.0 points over that span.
Green, meanwhile, has really had trouble against the Thunder, SGA or not. He averaged just 14.6 points in that same nine-game sample size, hitting 20 points just once. He has played 12 games overall against OKC in his career, and he has averaged 16.5 points in those games. That’s his 3rd-lowest mark against any single opponent. In the previous three matchups against the Thunder this season, Green has posted 12, 9, and 14 points on 35.3 percent shooting. There’s just something about that Thunder.
Best Bets:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-110)
- Jalen Green Under 22.5 Points (-110)
