NBA Monday March 13th - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline (-185) vs. WAS
Last week, we had a lot of success betting on teams with strong ATS records playing on no rest, so we’re going to dip back into that well here. Despite the fact that the Trail Blazers are a bottom four team in the West, they are by far the best team in the league when it comes to playing on no rest. So far this year, they have posted a 9-1-1 ATS record in the second leg of back-to-backs. That 90 percent success rate is nearly 20 percent higher than the next-best team.
Portland has an identical 9-1-1 ATS record when they are playing with a rest disadvantage—as they are here against the Wizards—which also tops the league. The Blazers have been as good against the East (17-6 ATS) as Washington has been bad against the West (9-17-1) as well. They’re not favored often, but when they are, the Blazers almost always (8-2 SU record as favorite) come away with a win. We’ll play it safe and bet their moneyline odds, which NBA betting sites have kindly left below our -200 threshold at -185 odds.
Toronto Raptors Alternative +9.5 Point Spread (-140) @ PHO
The Raptors have nearly always been the underdog this season, but they’re fine with that. They have gone 36-22-1 ATS as dogs this year, a 62.1 success rate that ranks 4th in the NBA. Toronto has also been rolling in March, covering seven out of eight spreads, including a 4-0 ATS mark as the underdog. They won three of those four games straight up.
They’ve also been surprisingly good against the strong Western Conference, posting a 19-5 ATS record in non-conference games that paces the NBA. Guess which team has the worst ATS record in non-conference games? Bingo, Toronto’s Monday night opponent, the Suns, who have gone a shocking 4-17-1 against the East. Phoenix is also 7-15-1 ATS as a home favorite, and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as favorites of 5+ points. We’ll buy up a point and take the Raptors to keep this one close.
Los Angeles Lakers Alternative -7.5 Point Spread (-150) vs. SAS
The Lakers had a bit of a hiccup when LeBron James first exited the lineup with a groin injury, but they’ve now covered the spread in back-to-back games after a win over the Suns yesterday. The Lakers are 6-3 ATS when playing on no rest, which is 6th-best in the league. They also have the best ATS record in conference games (26-15) in the NBA.
The Spurs have really gone into full tank mode, with both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox out for the year. LeBron may be out for L.A. too, but considering those absences for the Spurs, this spread feels a bit small for the Lakers. Especially when you look at their 22-11 ATS record at home, which is the 2nd-best in basketball. Their 16-9 ATS record as the home favorite is 3rd and L.A. is also 8-4 ATS with the rest disadvantage this season. This feels like a no-brainer, but we’ll still buy up a point and a half just to be safe.
