NBA Monday March 10th - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Portland Trail Blazers +11.5 Point Spread @ GSW (-110)
The quick turnaround of a back-to-back set is a pretty specific scenario, which means that teams that cover the spread on the second night of a back-to-back are not usually doing so by accident. They’ve found a system that works for them.
With that in mind, we’re looking at the team with the best ATS record when playing on no rest: the Trail Blazers. They are 8-1-1 in this situation so far this season, which is just short of an insane 90 percent hit rate. They just played last night, and they’re getting a huge underdog spread here on the road against the Warriors, so we like them a lot in this spot. It’s also worth noting that the Warriors did not play yesterday, which means the Blazers will be playing with a rest disadvantage. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in that scenario this year.
Golden State is 5-6 ATS on no rest, which is not good but not bad. However, they have not been great ATS when they’re big favorites like they are here, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7+ points. The Dubs have been rolling with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, but we can’t argue with that Blazers trend right now.
Denver Nuggets Alternative +10.5 Point Spread @ OKC (-160)
Sticking with the theme of teams playing on no rest, we’re also going to back the Denver Nuggets. They had their behinds handed to them by the Thunder on Sunday, so they’ll be looking for revenge on Monday in OKC. They are 9-3 ATS this season when playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, OKC, one of the best overall ATS teams in the league, is just 6-7 ATS when playing on no rest, compared to a 32-16-4 mark in all other situations.
The Thunder kind of embarrassed the Nuggets on Sunday too, beating the breaks off of them 127-103. That’s rare for Denver, but when it happens, they know how to answer appropriately. Since the start of last season Denver is 15-6 straight up after losing the previous game by double digits. While we don’t think they are going to win straight up, it’s not often you can get reasonable odds from betting apps on a number as high as +10.5 on the Nuggets, so we’ll take advantage here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points vs. DEN (-110)
The Nuggets may keep it close, but this guy Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be too much for them to put up an upset. Plus, this is SGA’s final chance to go up against his main foil in this MVP race, Nikola Jokic, and prove to the voters that he deserves to be the guy.
SGA has been on fire lately, scoring 31+ in six of seven games and 37+ in four of those. Pair his unbelievable form with his penchant for big performances in big moments, and you have a recipe for a scoring explosion.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s average against the current top eight teams in the West is a bonkers 37.5 in 16 games since November 11, including a 40 ball against these same Nuggets just yesterday. That average is not the product of just a few high-scoring games either. SGA only scored under 32 points twice in that 16-game sample size, and he scored 35+ in 11 of them. He should have a field day against Denver’s bottom 10 defense.
DAL-SAS Game Total Points Over 228.0 (-110)
The Mavericks are really running out of players at this point. It’s almost as if the franchise was cursed after trading Luka Doncic. Without their stars, they’re kind of just running out the clock on this season. That has led to some sloppy and high-scoring games, especially on the second night of a back-to-back, when the over has hit at a whopping 90 percent clip (9-1).
Lucky for us and our over bet, they’re taking on a Spurs team that comes into this one as a home favorite. When that’s the case for San Antonio, the over has gone 8-3 this year. That works out perfectly, because the over is also 14-7 for Mavericks games when they are road dogs. The over is also 8-4 in the last dozen Dallas games where the spread was under 230 points.
