NBA Tuesday February 25th Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Lakers (-7.0) vs. Mavericks (+7.0) Point Spread Predictions
It’s been over three weeks since the big trade, and Luka Doncic is finally starting to look like himself again. At least, that’s what he said after his most recent performance. It was a 32-point, 10-rebound, 7-assist effort in a win. Doncic said that it was the first time he felt fully back since straining his calf a couple of months ago back on Christmas.
The timing is too convenient. Now that Doncic is “feeling like” himself again his first matchup is against the team that traded him for, essentially, being overweight. We think this fat boy is going to make them pay. Dallas has played pretty well since the Doncic deal despite losing Anthony Davis so quickly, but they’re still 1-4 SU on the road in their last five.
L.A., meanwhile, is 9-2 SU at home in their last 11 games. Their 16-10 ATS record at Crypto.com Arena is the 6th best mark in the league. It’s also worth noting that the Lakers will have one extra day of rest ahead of this game compared to the Mavericks. When Dallas has a rest disadvantage, they are 6-8 ATS this year.
We like the Lakers a lot in this situation, especially with Doncic rounding into form and the fact that he and LeBron James will get extra rest. Even still, seven points feels like too many considering this is a matchup of two teams currently in playoff positions. We’re going to buy a few points from NBA betting sites here and take the Lakers by 4.5 points at -160 odds.
Best Bet: Lakers Alternative -4.5 Point Spread (-160)
Lakers vs. Mavericks Over/Under (227.5) Predictions
When it comes to this game’s total, it begins and ends with the Mavericks. The over is 13-13 when the Lakers are at home and 27-28 overall for them this year, so they don’t offer much in terms of over/under trends. Dallas, on the other hand, has seen a lot of high-scoring games when they take their show on the road this year.
The over is 18-10 when Dallas is on the road, which is the 4th-highest mark in the NBA. It gets even better when they are road underdogs, however. When they’re expected to lose as the away team, the over has hit in 13 of 18 games this year. It’s also worth mentioning that 10 of their last 14 games have gone over the total.
The over hit rate is in a similar range for when they’re playing with a rest disadvantage, as they are here, with 10 of those 14 games going over. With all of that in mind, we like the over, here, but we’ll still play it safe by lowering that 227-point total we’re getting from sports betting sites by a half point or two.
Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Over 225.5 (-140)
Lakers vs. Mavericks Player Prop Best Bets
I think we all know where we’re going with this one: Luka Doncic revenge game. He just so happened to have his best performance in two months in the game right before he welcomes his old team and new nemesis to his new home. Doncic is a nice guy, but he’s a killer on the court. It has been reported that he took the news of that trade hard, so it’s hard to imagine there are no emotions there.
When star players take on the teams that trade them against their will or without letting them know, they generally come back and play pretty well. Doncic will be dialed in, and he’s playing 30+ minutes a night again, so he’s gonna get his numbers. We love the over on Doncic’s 29.5 points prop, which is offering awesome -102 odds. However, we think he’ll do more than just score, so we’ll also take the over on his 46.5 points + assists + rebounds prop as well.
Best Bets
- Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-102)
- Luka Doncic Over 46.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-108)
