NBA 2023 Draft Betting Odds & Analysis

Most years the leadup to the NBA Draft is all about trying to figure out who will be going number one overall. There have been some pretty sure things in the past, but none as sure as this year with the first overall pick betting markets listing French big man Victor Wembanyama sitting at -20,000 odds or something in that ballpark on most NBA sportsbooks. 

2023 NBA Draft Betting Odds - June 22nd, 8PM EST

Victor Wembanyama is a singular talent and might be the most surefire No. 1 overall pick since LeBron James, if not all time. His combination of size and skill are unprecedented: the 7’3” center can dribble and shoot the ball like a point guard while also protecting the rim on the defensive end like an elite big man. With Greg Poppovich and the San Antonio Spurs lucking into the top pick, it’s nice to know that the phenom will be in a pair of safe hands. All odds provided by Betway.

The odds table really says it all: there has perhaps never been a more gargantuan chasm between the odds for the favorite and the second favorite than there is between the unicorn that is Wembanyama and the next best prospect in the field, Scoot Henderson.

The real drama at the draft will come after the skinny Frenchman is already off the board, so we’re also going to take a closer look at the odds for the No. 2 overall pick, which is currently held by the Charlotte Hornets.

Scoot Henderson Odds Analysis

The back and forth seesaw between Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller for the No. 2 pick is a great example of just how much odds can change in the span of a few days. A week before the draft, Miller was a -250 odds favorite to be drafted second overall, but now, just a couple of days out from the draft, it’s the G-League product, Henderson, who is now the -303 favorite to be taken after Wembanyama.

This massive flip-flop says as much about the players themselves as it does about the team holding that No. 2 pick, the Charlotte Hornets. All you have to do is look at Charlotte’s roster to understand what’s going on here. With LaMelo Ball firmly entrenched as the starting point guard and best player on the team, they were never going to take Henderson, another point guard, with the No. 2 pick.

The fact that Henderson has such short odds to be taken second overall means that the Hornets are almost certainly going to be trading out of that spot to snag more draft capital and boost their rebuild.

Henderson is only 6’2” but he more than makes up for a lack of height with an insane 6’9” wingspan and a really impressive leaping ability. The youngster is about as explosive as you can get at the point guard position, somewhat reminiscent of Derrick Rose. His elite athleticism paired with the fact that he’s already played two years in the G-League means Henderson is arguably the most NBA-ready guy in this draft class.

The Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans have apparently expressed genuine interest in the pick, and both would make sense since neither team really has a point guard right now after Fred VanVleet turned down his player option up North.

Brandon Miller Odds Analysis

According to the betting odds, the only other guy who has a realistic chance to be drafted second is Brandon Miller, an exciting wing prospect out of Alabama that has had some dicey situations off the court. Those issues have seemingly been resolved, however, and Miller is pretty much a shoo-in to be drafted no later than third overall.

Miller is a wing player with great athleticism and length, the latter of which also plays a huge role in how good his jump shot is already. Miller is able to shoot over most other wings, resulting in a 44 percent clip from downtown on seven attempts per game last year for the Tide. All he needs to do is add some muscle so he can be more effective from inside the arc.

The only question is, which team is going to be holding the third overall pick when it comes time to make the choice? The Portland Trail Blazers currently have it, but there have been many rumors and a lot of chatter about their star player, Damian Lillard, pushing them to trade it for some established veteran talent to help him win now.

With the odds looking the way they are for the first three picks, the exact order prop of Wembanyama, then Henderson, then Miller at -167 odds on Betway is not too shabby if you’ve got a bit of capital to put down on it.