Nations League Quarterfinals Leg 2: Germany vs Italy Odds, Betting Preview, & Picks

A berth in the Nations League semifinals is on the line Sunday as Germany and Italy lock horns in the second leg of their quarterfinals tie. The kick-off is scheduled for 3:45 PM ET at Signal Iduna Park, the home of Borussia Dortmund. The Germans ran out 2-1 winners in the opening leg on Thursday at the San Siro, courtesy of second-half goals from Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka. The winner on aggregate will take on either Portugal or Denmark, who are also battling it out in the last eight. Below, we’ll lay out the match odds, analysis, and Germany vs Italy picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Germany vs Italy Odds

Germany heads in as a heavy -173 home favorite for the second leg. Italy returns at +320 odds, while a draw is priced at +270. These two have met many times over the years and the Germans have been the more dominant side since 2013, going unbeaten in seven fixtures, winning on four occasions. That includes back-to-back Nations League victories.

Germany vs Italy Analysis

While Germany hasn’t enjoyed a ton of success in the last few major tournaments, they have an opportunity to claim hardware in the Nations League. Julian Nagelsmann’s men finished at the top of Group A3, going undefeated with a 5-2-0 record. It wasn’t an easy pod either, with the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia also accompanying them. The Germans were in trouble early on Thursday, with Sandro Tonali scoring within the first 10 minutes in Milan. But, the visitors redeemed themselves in the second period as Goretzka ultimately bagged the winner.

Bayer Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz has been their most productive player in the final third, scoring three goals in the competition. However, he’s not in the squad for this current window due to an ankle injury sustained at club level. Kleindienst and Deniz Undav have also hit the back of the net three times in the Nations League.

Italy has fallen off a cliff since winning Euro 2020 at Wembley. There’s really no other way to put it. They missed the 2022 World Cup and then also struggled in Euro 2024, bowing out in the Round of 16 at the hands of Switzerland. But, Luciano Spalletti’s squad has enjoyed a respectable Nations League campaign.

They were runners-up in Group A2 behind France, going 4-1-1. The Azzurri have also progressed to the Nations League semifinals in two straight editions. Italy got off to a rocking start on Thursday but as previously mentioned, conceded twice in the second half. Despite numerous chances to equalize, they couldn’t. Now, it’s an uphill battle where the visitors need to win by at least two goals on Sunday in Dortmund to advance. They’re a clear underdog at soccer betting sites.

Germany vs Italy Team News

Although Germany still has a very strong squad, there are numerous key players absent right now. That includes Kai Havertz, Wirtz, Benjamin Henrichs, and Felix Nmecha, among several others. As for Italy they’re missing Mateo Retegui, who is leading the Serie A in goals. Riccardo Calafiori is questionable due to fitness concerns, while wing-back Federico Demarco is also unavailable.

Germany vs Italy Picks

The Italians will surely be bringing their absolute best at Signal Iduna to try and overcome the first-leg deficit. While I do not believe they will win this fixture on aggregate, I could see Italy finding a draw but coming up just short in terms of advancing to the last four.

Pick: Draw +270