March Madness Second Round - Michigan State vs. New Mexico Best Bets & Odds - March 23
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 10 New Mexico - South Region - Cleveland, OH @ 8:40PM
Point Spread Prediction
Michigan State didn’t play in the toughest conference in the nation this year, but their 8-2 record against teams ranked in the AP poll is about as good as it gets. Not only is that an impressive record, but it shows the level of competition they’ve been playing against all year. New Mexico, meanwhile, is just 1-1 in those sorts of big games.
Tom Izzo has his Spartans playing their best ball at the right time as well, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They’re also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, and 8-4 ATS in their last dozen games as a major favorite of 7+ points, like they are here.
Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the country, while New Mexico fields one of the most potent attacks. The saying goes that defense wins championships, and we believe it will ring true here. Michigan State is 22nd in Kenpom’s defensive rating rankings, and they allow the lowest shooting percentage from long-range in the nation at just 27.7.
The fact that the Lobos shoot under 69 percent from the free throw line and also commit 11+ turnovers per game makes them hard to trust in an upset scenario. We like Sparty to win comfortably again here, though we will buy a point down from what betting sites were offering on the point spread, just to be safe.
Best Bet: Michigan State Alternative -6.5 Point Spread (-140)
Over/Under Prediction
When betting on March Madness, you can’t let your love of overs blind you. When teams play more important games, they get tighter, and the scores get lower. Don’t discount the unders in March! The under has hit at a 67.6 rate for the Spartans this year, and despite their top 30 offense, the under has hit in five straight games for the Lobos.
When New Mexico is the underdog, the under is especially potent, at 6-1; the under is also 17-10 for Michigan State when they’re the favorite. Only one of New Mexico’s last seven games has gone over 150 points, and the same goes for nine of Michigan State’s last 11. We’ll buy up a couple of points, but this should be a game where points are hard-earned.
Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Under 150.0 (-150)
Player Prop Best Bet
Usually it takes us a good while to figure out which player prop is offering the best value, but it didn’t take long this time around. Jase Richardson has been a dead eye sniper from three-point land recently, yet his line for three-pointers made was sitting at just 1.5 for this one. And not only that, but it’s being offered with + odds as well.
Richardson has hit multiple threes in six straight games, and in eight of his last nine. The Lobos allowed Marquette to go 11-for-30 from deep on Friday, with two Golden Eagles hitting 2+ triples. Richardson has hit 3+ threes in his last three games coming into this one as well.
Best Bet: Jase Richardson Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+105)
