Miami Open Quarterfinals: Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini Odds, Betting Preview, & Picks

A spot in the Miami Open semifinals is on the line on Thursday, March 27 as American Taylor Fritz faces Matteo Berrettini of Italy. The first serve is scheduled for 7 Pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium. The No. 3 ranked Fritz beat Aussie Adam Walton in the Round of 16 in straight sets. As for Berrettini, who is 29th in the world, he pulled off an upset, taking down another Aussie in Alex de Minaur in straight sets as well. Continue reading for the Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini Odds

Fritz is the clear favorite here on home soil, coming in at -190 moneyline odds. Berrettini, who was also an underdog against de Minaur, sits at +150 for this quarterfinal clash.

Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini H2H

History is completely on Fritz’s side. In four meetings with Berrettini, he’s 4-0. Fritz took down the Italian in the Round of 64 at the US Open last summer. They’ve also gone to battle in the United Cup, at Indian Wells, and in the Davis Cup Finals, but that came way back in 2019.

Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini Analysis

Fritz has really impressed over the last few seasons, emerging as one of the better players in the world. As previously mentioned, he’s now up to No. 3 on the ATP Tour. But, 2025 hasn’t gotten off to the best start for him. Fritz is only 13-5 this year so far, and he lost in the Round of 32 at the first Major of the campaign, the Australian Open.

On a more positive note, the American made the quarterfinals at Delray Beach and the Finals in the United Cup at the end of 2024. As for the Miami Open, Fritz hasn’t faced easy opponents en route to the last eight. He had to beat Lorenzo Sonego and No. 27-ranked Denis Shapovalov before taking down Walton on Tuesday afternoon.

Berrettini fell off the map for a couple of years due to inconsistent play and health issues, but this quarterfinal appearance is hopefully the start of a bounce-back season for the Italian, who was seen as one of the most promising players to come out of the country. The 28-year-old has a 9-6 record this season, making the quarters in Doha and Dubai before Stefanos Tsitsipas beat him in the Round of 32 at Indian Wells.

The lone Grand Slam of the year didn’t go too well for Berrettini, though. Young Norwegian Holger Rune eliminated him in four sets in the Round of 64. A victory for Berrettini on Thursday would put him into his first semifinal of the ‘25 season. Considering his immense struggles against Fritz, however, it’s understandable why he’s a huge underdog at tennis betting sites.

Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini Picks

It’s hard to bet against Fritz when he’s played such dominant tennis versus Berrettini. It also helps that he’s playing on home turf. While I could certainly see Berrettini pushing Fritz to three sets, I do believe the American star will come out victorious and book a spot in the semis. Lock in the Fritz moneyline.

Pick: Taylor Fritz -190