Miami Open: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Odds, Betting Preview, & Picks

Two quality players on the ATP Tour will go to battle on Tuesday, March 25 in the Miami Open Round of 16 as No. 10 Alex de Minaur faces No. 29 Matteo Berrettini. The first serve is scheduled for 4 PM ET. de Minaur, who represents Australia, took down Brazilian Joao Fonseca in the first round in three sets on Monday. As for the Italian Berrettini, he took down Belgium’s Zizou Bergs in the Round of 32 in straight sets. Read below for the Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini picks. 

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Odds

De Minaur comes in as a heavy -168 favorite on the moneyline, while Berrettini returns at +130 odds.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini H2H

These two have only met three times dating back to 2021. That year, Berrettini beat de Minaur in straight sets in the Queen’s Club semifinals. In 2022, de Minaur got revenge in the ATP Cup. Berrettini won their most recent meeting at the 2023 edition of Wimbledon in the first round.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Analysis

It’s been a respectable season so far for de Minaur. He made the quarterfinals in his home country in the Australian Open, ultimately losing in the quarterfinals to the eventual winner, Jannik Sinner. De Minaur also made the final in Rotterdam but settled for a runner-up finish, falling to Carlos Alcaraz.

Overall, de Minaur has a 17-5 record in 2025. He put together an impressive run at Indian Wells earlier this month, bowing out in the Round of 16 at the hands of Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo. As for his clash with Fonseca, it wasn’t an easy one. de Minaur was pushed to the absolute brink by the Brazilian, who took the first set. But, the Aussie bounced back, winning the next two sets 7-5, 6-3. He’ll have a tough task against Berrettini, a player who leads the H2H battle.

Berrettini has fallen off the map a bit over the last few years due to inconsistent play and injuries. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been the best start to ‘25 for the Italian, either. In 12 matches, he owns a dismal 8-6 record and lost in the opening round of the only Grand Slam so far to young Norwegian Holger Rune. Berrettini did make the quarterfinals in Doha and Dubai, though.

For Berrettini, one of the keys to victory is his big serve. He’s also played well against de Minaur, which is a promising sign as he eyes a spot in the quarterfinals. But, the reality is de Minaur has been the more consistent player across the last couple of seasons, which is exactly why Berrettini is an underdog on Tuesday at tennis betting sites.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Picks

Berrettini is no pushover. He’s a strong player with a great forehand and strong serve. However, de Minaur has the track record lately and he is the full package with the ability to play relentless defense against anyone.

I think you’ll see an highly entertaining match here, but it will be the Aussie who comes out on top in three sets in Miami.

Pick: Alex de Minaur -168