Miami Florida vs. UConn March Madness Final Four Odds

The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament has reached its final weekend, and the Final Four could not have been any harder to predict.

In the late matchup on April 1st, No. 5 Miami Florida will go up against No. 4 UConn in what is shaping up to be a very intriguing showdown for a chance to reach the National Championship Game. UConn is the higher seed so it makes sense that most sports betting sites have them as the favorites, but they are bigger chalk on the moneyline than most were probably expecting.

Miami Florida vs. UConn NCAA Basketball Odds

This matchup of No. 5 and No. 4 seeds has all the makings of a classic, which is why it’s slightly surprising that the Huskies are being touted as such strong favorites despite their dominance in the tournament so far. They’re the higher-seeded team and the seemingly more well-rounded team, but a spread this big in the Final Four is a rarity. All odds provided by Betway. 

No. 5 Miami Florida NCAA Basketball Odds

The Hurricanes went on quite a run in March, scoring over 80 points a game and winning their matchups by a double-digit margin on average. One of their biggest strengths is the depth and diversity from which they have gotten important contributions, with five different players averaging double figures points in the tourney so far.

That variety of weapons who can score off the bounce is a big reason why Miami has the fifth-best offensive rating per KenPom, and that ability to score and score and score is likely going to be what allows them to stay in the game against the dominant Huskies. Miami has also shown that they can put the ball in the basket in a lot of different ways as well.

In their shocking Sweet Sixteen win over No. 1 seed Houston—a program that was arguably the most popular pick to win it all this season—they were scorching hot from deep, draining 11 of their 25 long range tries. However, in their Elite Eight comeback win over Texas in which they finished the game on a 30-14 run, they went just 2-for-8 from the three and were instead getting to the basket at will, a strategy which resulted in 32 free throw attempts, 28 of which they made.

That’s been their calling card during the madness, as Miami has been able to make 18.8 free throws a game, third-best in the tournament. Wing Jordan Miller put up 27 to beat Texas and guard Nijel Pack poured in 26 to take down Houston in the round before, and they will likely need another primetime performance like one of those to beat UConn. Don’t forget about Isaiah Wong either, because he can score (16.2 ppg) and force turnovers with the best of them.

No. 4 UConn NCAA Basketball Odds

UConn has had by far the easiest road to the Final Four, winning all four of their games by at least 15 points on their way to NRG Stadium in Houston. They’ve been averaging over 80 points in this tournament while giving up less than 60 per game. While their dominance is enticing, it also means they haven’t had to show the mental toughness in tight games that you want in a tournament pick.

Miami has played two very tight games in the tournament, including a massive comeback to boot the Longhorns in the Elite Eight. That immeasurable experience will serve them well if the game is close in the final minutes, but keeping the game tight until the end is going to be a tough task.

Guard Jordan Hawkins was white hot from deep in the Elite Eight, dropping in six triples to help the Huskies advance without hitting a two-point shot. His J.R. Smith-like capability of heating up at a moment’s notice will be a crucial factor in this game, and the Hurricanes would do well to keep a body on him outside the arc if they want a chance here.

Center Adam Sanogo will be the focal point for UConn as usual, however. The big man has been averaging over 17 points a game while taking a shot on just under 30 percent of his team’s offensive possessions. Miami big man Norchad Ochier has been excellent in March, but he will have his hands full with Sanogo. Ochier will also need to be very smart about how he plays, because if he gets in foul trouble, there’s not much size behind him.

In the end, it will likely be Miami’s lack of size that does them in because the Huskies are just so darn good on the interior, especially when it comes to the glass. If the ‘Canes can’t limit UConn’s second chance points, they might as well just pack it in now, but if they can and they get another elite performance from one of their guards or wings guys, we’re in for a very interesting battle in Houston.