Manchester City has reached the 2023 Champions League Final, the second time they’ve done so in the last three years.
In this year’s edition, which will be played at Ataturk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey, on June 10th, they will take on a surprising Inter Milan squad who most pundits would not have expected to make it this far. Betting sites would agree, as they have all listed Manchester City as major favorites to win their first ever Champions League.
Pep Guardiola has had trouble with Manchester City in the Champions League, so Inter Milan certainly have a chance in the first ever meeting between these sides. Odds provided by Betway.
| Team | Moneyline Odds | To Lift Trophy | Total Goals O/U |
| Manchester City | -222 | -500 | O2.5 (-133) |
| Inter Milan | +550 | +333 | U2.5 (+105) |
| Draw | +350 |
Apart from their final two games of the Premier League season, which were meaningless after having already secured the title for the fifth time in six years, only three of their last 17 games have seen fewer than three goals, and one of those was a meaningless second leg against Bayern Munich after having slaughtered them and the tie in the first leg.
Since their last meaningful loss against Tottenham back in early February, Man City have averaged 2.9 goals in 24 games in all competitions (not counting the final two Premier League games and the second leg against Bayern) which means that for the over to hit in this game Inter would essentially only need to score a consolation goal.
The last time Inter Milan didn’t score a goal in a match was on April 15th in a 1-0 league loss to Monza. They also scored 71 goals during the league season, second in Serie A.
In the 13 matches since that loss to Monza, Inter has averaged 2.5 goals, which means they’re more than capable of creating their own offensive chances. You don’t often find an over on a 2.5 goal total at odds as reasonable as -133, so the over is definitely worth some serious consideration here.
After a rough middle stretch of the season in the early stages of 2023, Manchester City buckled down like only Manchester City could for the stretch run. Apart from a meaningless loss to Brentford on the final day of the season, Manchester City have not lost since February 1st, a run of 25 matches.
They already won the Premier League and the FA Cup, so a win in this Champions League Final would complete a truly historic treble the likes of which English football fans haven’t seen this century.
While defenders Manuel Akanji and Kyle Walker are in doubt for the Final on Saturday, City really shouldn’t be too worried. This is the best chance they’ve had at winning the Champions League, because while Inter Milan are no slouches, they’re certainly no PSG or Bayern Munich or Real Madrid, the latter two of which City beat on the road to the Final.
All City need to do is play the way they’ve been playing all season long. The only way they can possibly lose this is by committing several boneheaded errors or, the far more likely option, if Pep tries to big brain his squad and lineup like he did against Chelsea in their 2021 Champions League Final loss. If Pep keeps it simple, the Final should be a walk in the park for City.
As evidenced by their massive +550 odds to win and +333 odds to lift the trophy, no one is giving Inter Milan much of a chance here. They’re going up against a behemoth in Manchester City who have already won their league and their top domestic cup this season. Inter, meanwhile, finished a distant third in the final Serie A standings for the 2022-23 season.
Don’t count Milan out just yet, however. In Romelu Lukaku they have an offensive weapon that could explode at any moment, and he’s the type of striker that could definitely pounce on an error at the back and make City pay. His massive frame also makes him a great crossing target for Inter, which is important because the tough and compact City defense is unlikely to allow them any central avenues of attack.
Coach Simeone Inzaghi has also been great with his tactics so far this season. His team wasn’t quite good enough all around to win the league, but his ability to take advantage of matchups and each opponent’s weaknesses in cup competitions has been flawless as Inter Milan won their record ninth Coppa Italia title this year and beat the Serie A champs, Napoli, on their way to this Champions League Final.
Inter Milan will need a herculean effort to pull off this upset, but they’d love nothing more than to shock the football world by ending an epic Manchester City campaign with familiar Champions League failure.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
