Manchester City vs. Arsenal - Premier League Soccer Betting Odds

With Arsenal and Liverpool tied atop the table and Manchester City just a point behind with 10 games remaining, the City-Arsenal matchup on Sunday has massive title race implications. The winner at the Etihad could very well be lifting the Premier League trophy come May. While Arsenal may be ahead on points, goal difference, and head-to-head matchups this season, Man City will be at home, and they have a massive experience advantage when it comes to these tough run-in games during a title race, which is why they are the moneyline favorites here.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal Premier League Soccer Betting Odds - March 30

Though the game will be an exciting pressure cooker, it comes at an unfortunate time just after an international break that has seen a couple of players on each side pick up knocks. Prior to the two-week break, Arsenal had beaten Brentford 2-1 in a tough PL match, then went on to beat Porto on penalties in the Champions League Round of 16. City, for their part, are coming off of a comfortable 2-0 win over Newcastle in the FA Cup semifinal and a thrilling 1-1 draw to Liverpool in the league. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

This fixture used to be the biggest joke in the Premier League. From 2017 to 2023, City and Arsenal squared off 16 times, and Arsenal only won a single match, with City taking the other 15. No draws. However, the tide may be turning, because despite that extended period of dominance, Arsenal have beaten City in their last two meetings.

One of those was in the Community Shield on penalties, but it was still a mental win for the Arsenal players, showing the third-youngest team in the EPL that they could hang with the treble winners. A few months later, they took City down at home in a 1-0 victory that was as cagey as they come, finishing with a total of 0.9 xG between the two of them.

With the title race closer than it has been all season after City’s draw to Liverpool last time out, we expect this one to be just as cagey, though with only 10 games left and City’s history of strong run-ins, the young challengers may feel that they need to go for this one a little bit more than their hosts. And they’d probably be right.

If City lose this match, they’d fall behind Arsenal by four points in the league. That’s far from insurmountable for a team with Erling Haaland, Rodri, and Kevin DeBruyne, guys who have all been there and done that on multiple occasions over the last half decade playing under Pep Guardiola. If they lose against Arsenal, they would still feel like they had a chance at the title.

Arsenal, on the other hand, is coming off a season where they allowed a larger lead atop the table to slip away due to falling standards and injuries. They didn’t seem like they were quite ready to mount a serious charge on City.

This year, with the addition of Declan Rice and their spike in form since the turn of the calendar year (especially their other big summer addition, Kai Havertz), they seem more well-equipped to give this City team problems. However, if they lose to City again after all the progress they’ve made, it would be a tough mental block to get over.

City may be at home, but believe it or not, Arsenal have been better on the road than City have been at the Etihad in some ways:

• Arsenal has scored 34 goals in 14 away games, City has scored 34 goals in 14 home games.
• Arsenal has allowed just 11 goals in 14 games on the road (the lowest of any team’s home or away record in the EPL), City has allowed 12 goals in 14 games at home.

Another thing working against City is the fact that they have some key injury doubts, with a couple of their Englishmen picking up knocks in meaningless international friendlies over the break. Both John Stones and Kyle Walker are now dealing with injuries, and though Guardiola said Walker’s is worse than Stones’, he also said “they will be out, I don’t know how many games.”

It’s almost the exact same situation for Mikel Arteta and the trio of Gabriel, Gabriel Martinelli, and Bukayo Saka. Though it seems Saka and Gabriel are likely to play, Martinelli hasn’t featured for Arsenal for a few weeks due to a gash on his foot. If Martinelli is able to play and Walker is not able to get out there to match him for pace, the Brazilian could have a big return performance on the left wing for Arsenal.

Erling Haaland is a cyborg, but if there is a center back pairing with the surly attitude, speed, strength, and size combination to give him fits, it’s Gabriel and William Saliba. As they did in the reverse fixture, the pair will have to be at their very best to keep Haaland from impacting the game, which is crucial in a team’s quest to best City.

Despite what most betting sites and betting apps are saying with their hefty favorite odds on City, we think Arsenal has the horses to win this one, though we do concede that City is savvy enough to at least get a point here.

Best Bet: Arsenal/Draw Double Chance (-120)/Draw (+260)

Manchester City vs. Arsenal Player Goalscorer Betting Odds

It would be easy to just say Erling Haaland and Bukayo Saka are going to score for their teams because they score the most often—and that’s exactly what we’re going to do, to an extent. Saka is in legitimately elite form at the moment, especially in the league, where he’s scored in six of his last nine appearances, a run during which he’s scored eight goals and provided two assists.

Saka provided an assist when these teams played in the Community Shield, though he missed Arsenal’s home win in the fall. At +333 odds, you’re not gonna find more value on a Saka goal than this all season.

On the other hand, the league’s leading scorer has not been in great form recently, or against Arsenal, for that matter. Haaland has scored just three times in his last eight games, which is a massive drought by his standards.

He also played 63 minutes against Arsenal in the Community Shield and 90 in the reverse fixture and produced a grand total of zero goals, zero shots on target, and zero shots. In fact, Saliba and Gabriel held the Norwegian Stallion to 0.0 xG in the PL fixture, the only team to do that to Haaland all season. So whatever you do, try to avoid betting on Haaland’s +110 odds to score, which don’t offer a ton of value anyway.

Another one to consider is Arsenal front man Kai Havertz, who has really found his stride in recent weeks. After scoring just four goals in his first 23 Premier League appearances for Arsenal, he has scored a goal in four straight league contests now. At +360, the No. 9/No. 8 hybrid is offering a ton of value considering the roll he’s on.

Best Bet: Bukayo Saka anytime scorer (+330)/Kai Havertz anytime scorer (+360)