All odds and props courtesy of bet365. All stats exclude Week 18, when neither team played their starters.
Both Teams Successful 4th Down Conversion - Yes (-130)
Teams are “going for it” on 4th down in the NFL now more than ever before. And the funny thing is, they’re also having more success than ever too. 75 percent of the teams in the league converted 10+ 4th downs this season, and 75 percent of the clubs also converted at a rate of 50 or better.
The odds would have already been in our favor, but then we get arguably the two best 4th-down teams of this era in the Eagles and Chiefs. In the regular season, the Chiefs went 12-for-17 (70.6 percent, 3rd-best in the NFL) and the Eagles went 19-for-27 (70.4, 4th-best in the NFL).
Including playoffs, the Eagles have converted at least one 4th down in six straight games, and the same goes for the Chiefs in their last four in a row. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs have converted a 4th down in three of their four Super Bowl appearances, while Philly converted two in their loss to K.C. in Super Bowl 57. Betting sites should have had this set in the -200s, so we’re swooping in with a smile at -130.
Player To Record Longest Rushing Attempt - Saquon Barkley (-150)
This one was kind of a no-brainer. NFL betting sites can’t get every line right, which is why you’ve got to look closely for ones like this. Still offering decent value at -150 odds, but also a pretty darn safe play. There are no real home run hitters playing on the ground in this game besides Saquon Barkley, and we know he’s going to get the most bites at the apple: He’s -600 to have the most rushing attempts.
Saquon Barkley had a 60-yarder last week, a 78-yarder the week before, a 68-yarder a few weeks before that, a 72-yarder a month before that, and three totes of 55+ before Halloween. He’s been doing this all year. Why stop now?
Kareem Hunt figures to see the most work on K.C.’s side, and his longest rush of the year is just 20 yards. Jalen Hurts has had just two rushes of 25+ in 2024, Patrick Mahomes only has two rushes of more than 15 yards during this campaign, and Isiah Pacheco hasn’t exactly been explosive since returning. Xavier Worthy could be a worry, but he’s only got one rush of 30+ since October.
Most Time of Possession - Philadelphia Eagles (-150)
We know it’s Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but they haven’t exactly won by conventional means this year. They’ve been living and dying on last-second magic, which usually means they don’t have the ball for more time than their opponent.
In fact, believe it or not, they have lost the time of possession battle in six of their last nine games, including in both of their playoff wins. On the other hand, the Eagles led the league in TOP at 32:07 per game (K.C. was 13th, with 30:28), and have taken that time battle in 15 of their 19 games this year, including all three of their playoff matchups. Philly also won the TOP contest by a country mile when these teams met in the Big Game two years ago.
Philadelphia Eagles 1st Player To Record A Reception - Dallas Goedert (+260)
We’re surprised that online betting sites still haven’t caught onto the fact that Dallas Goedert has become the big Philly Cheesesteak for the Eagles. He leads the team (or is tied for the lead) in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs during the postseason.
He’s also led the Eagles (or tied) in each of their three playoff games. He has caught the first pass for the Eagles in each of their last two playoff games, and the Chiefs just so happened to allow more receiving yards to TEs this year than any other defense. There’s no way he should have more lucrative odds than both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, but here we are.
Player To Record Most Tackles & Assists - Zack Baun (+125)
Zack Baun has been one of the biggest (and best) surprises in the NFL this season. He can truly do it all, and he’s everywhere on the field. That’s how he racked up 151 combined tackles this year, tied for 6th-most in the NFL. His 26 tackles during these playoffs are also 2nd-most, as well as 12 more than the leading Chiefs tackler (Drue Tranquill). Baun had a game-high 12 tackles in the NFC Championship, and he should continue to be busy with Travis Kelce lining up on the other side.
