The curtain will be raised on the 2023 NFL season on Thursday when the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. It should be an entertaining affair considering both of these teams fielded top five offenses last year, so buckle in!
The Chiefs come into this one as predictable favorites on the moneyline to win at Arrowhead Stadium on all betting sites, though they’re not as heavily favored as you might expect.
The Kansas City Chiefs reached their third Super Bowl in four seasons last year, beating the Philadelphia Eagles for their second championship of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era. They’ll be looking to make it three in five in 2023. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, seemingly turned their fortunes around with a strong finish to the last campaign, winning eight of their final 10 games. They’ll look to build on that in 2023. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -215 | -4.5 (-110) | O53.0 (-110) |
| Detroit Lions | +179 | +4.5 (-110) | U53.0 (-110) |
The Kansas City Chiefs lost arguably their best player apart from Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, before last season, and they still went on to win the Super Bowl. The formula works. They bring back nearly all of the usual suspects this year, so have a guess what they’re expected to do in 2023.
Now, it seems like they might have to begin the season without their current second-best player, Travis Kelce. The tight end hyperextended his knee at a practice on Tuesday and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Lions. Kelce or not, Mahomes has proven that he can adapt and keep the offense humming even with new weapons moving in and out of the lineup.
The Chiefs have had a lot of success not just because they finish strong in January, but also because they start hot in September: they’ve gone 13-3 in the season’s opening month since Mahomes took over as the quarterback in 2018. Head coach Andy Reid has also been a Week 1 specialist since he arrived in KC, winning every single season opener since 2014.
Standing in the way of those trends are the hot team of the offseason, the Detroit Lions. Not hot because they made a ton of moves, because they didn’t, but hot because everyone and their mother is all over them to be the Cinderella team of 2023. Don’t jump the gun, though.
The Lions are in line to have a solid year, and they may even win an Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North. However, they haven’t made any great leaps from last season themselves, it’s just that the teams around them in the NFC got worse. That’s not the case in the AFC.
With the amount of points the Lions can score and the possibility of a late consolation score, the -4.5 spread for the Chiefs isn’t ideal, but considering the track records of Reid and Mahomes in Week 1, they are definitely the way to go with a point spread bet on Thursday night.
As for the total, 53 is a very high number that’s hard to rationalize. But rationalize we will, because who doesn’t love an over? The two teams combined to score over 55 points per game last season, and neither one made great leaps defensively, so we can expect a shootout here. At least they’re offering it at -110 odds.
| Player | Odds |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | -150 |
| Isaiah Pacheco (KC) | +105 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | +125 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | +125 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | +140 |
| Kadarius Toney (KC) | +150 |
| Jerick McKinnon (KC) | +160 |
| Skyy Moore (KC) | +175 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) | +225 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +225 |
These are tough to consider when the top guy on the table is a big question mark going into the game, but there are some props we can take a look at whether Kelce plays or not. Last year, the Chiefs scored the seventh-most rushing touchdowns, and the Lions gave up the sixth most rushing touchdowns to running backs. We expect the Chiefs to be in the red zone often, so off of sheer volume Isaiah Pacheco should be a solid bet to find the end zone at +105.
Another one we like is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. We’re not so sure about his +225 anytime touchdown odds, but we love his 39.5 receiving yards prop. It’s being offered at -110 odds despite the fact that he has been named as a starter for the game, which means he should be seeing a good amount of snaps. With a guy like MVS, all it takes is one throw to hit the over on that prop, so it’s well worth a shot. Not to mention this is an even better bet if Kelce doesn’t play.
For the Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose odds sit at +125, offers a lot of value for a guy with as big a target share as he’s going to have while Jameson Williams serves his suspension. The Chiefs don’t exactly employ All-Pros at the cornerback position, so the Sun God should find his way to pay dirt on Thursday night.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
