In arguably the most highly-anticipated matchup of the NFL’s Week 2 slate, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will look to get their first win of the 2023 campaign as they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags started their season off with a divisional win, but despite that and the fact that they’re at home, the Chiefs still come in as the moneyline favorites on most NFL betting sites for this battle of AFC heavyweights.
The Kansas City Chiefs were shocked by the upstart Detroit Lions at home in the season opener, dropping a tight 21-20 tilt. The Jacksonville Jaguars, for their part, got the job done 31-21 against a clearly inferior opponent in the Indianapolis Colts. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +152 | +3.0 (+152) | O51.0 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -186 | -3.0 (-123) | U51.0 (-110) |
When the 2023 NFL schedule went out a few months ago, there’s no question that a lot of people were circling this contest as one of the best early games of the season. Honestly, it’s such a juicy matchup, we wish it could’ve been played a little bit later in the season, like November or December. But alas, here we are in Week 2 with two of the top teams in the stacked AFC locking horns. Or claws. Or arrows. Whatever.
Either way, it’s going to be an exciting affair. Both of these teams have elite offensive firepower and are far less impressive on the defensive side of the ball, which sets up for a Sunday afternoon shootout. This could very well play out similarly to the Dolphins-Chargers barn burner from Week 1.
With that in mind, let’s just get it out of the way early: the over is the best bet available here. The number is a little bit high at 51.0 with -110 odds, but with Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes at the controls, we should be in good hands.
Both led top 10 offenses (Kansas City was No. 1) last year and they look like they should have similar success in 2023. The Jaguars offense was humming in Week 1 to the tune of 31 points, and despite playing one of the worst offensive games of the Mahomes era, the Chiefs still stuck 20 points on the Lions in Week 1. The Colts’ suspect offense also put up 21 points against the Jaguars defense in the loss.
And this is all before getting to the extra incentive both teams have to win this one: it’s a rematch of the tightly contested Divisional playoff game the Chiefs won last year, 27-20. These teams could also very well be fighting for home field advantage later this year, so whoever wins this matchup will have a leg up in the tiebreakers.
It’s hard not to bet on the Chiefs to bounce back in this one. Mahomes has only lost back-to-back games thrice in his six-year NFL career, and it’s a pretty good general rule that the best of the best can’t be held down for long.
The spread is still only at three, which is amazing for those that want to back the Chiefs, as even a win by a field goal keeps you safe. The odds on their -3.0 point spread are not the best, at -123, but for a team this good looking to bounce back after a thoroughly disappointing opening game, it’s still offering more than enough value.
And did we mention Chris Jones and Travis Kelce, Kansas City’s second and third most important players, are both going to be back? Yeah, we’re riding Chiefs -3.0 to the moon here, sorry Trev.
Travis Kelce will be making his 2023 debut after missing the season opener, so he will be chomping at the bit to make a big impact on the road against the Jags. Jacksonville has shown themselves to be susceptible to the tight end and Kelce specifically in the past as well.
Last year, Kelce piled up 20 catches for 179 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Jags. Doug Pedersen’s guys also gave up the fourth-most yards to tight ends in 2022 (1,066), and tied for the ninth-most tight end touchdowns allowed (seven). Even just last week, a nobody tight end for the Colts, Kylen Granson, finished second on the team with 39 yards on four catches. Kelce is a good play to score a touchdown at -145 odds, but the over on his 78.5 receiving yards prop is offering a little more value at -120 odds.
Another one calling out to us is the over on a couple of Chiefs wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s props. He had two catches on two targets for 48 yards last week and was one of, if not the only, Kansas City receiver to catch all his targets. With the struggles of the rest of the receiving corps, MVS should have earned a few more looks, so we love him to hit the over on his 2.5 receptions prop at +120 odds as well as the over on his 30.5 receiving yards prop at -115 odds.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
