March Madness Final Four - Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers Best Bets & Odds - April 6
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Auburn - South Region - San Antonio, TX @ 6:10PM
Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction
Florida comes in as the very slight favorite here, and they are deserving. They come into this one having won 10 in a row, and they also won the previous matchup between these two programs back in February, a 90-81 win in Alabama.
The big thing for us here is the health of Auburn’s go-to big man, Johni Broome. Not only is he the focal point of their offense in the paint, but he’s one of the best rebounders in the nation too, sitting tied for fifth in that category with 10.9 a game. He’s also 10th in offensive rebounding at 3.7, which is crucial for Auburn as they will need second chance points to keep up with Florida.
In their last meeting, Auburn’s nation-best three-point defense didn’t matter, and if anything Clayton and the fellas have only gotten hotter in the interim. The Gators are also one of the few teams with the length and depth inside to keep Broome at bay if he does get back to 100 percent.
We like Florida here, but with betting sites offering their moneyline at a peachy -150, there’s no need to sweat about points. Go with the Gators straight up and save yourself the stress.
Best Bet: Florida Gators Moneyline (-150)
Over/Under Prediction
Most often, when two elite programs clash, they buckle down defensively and limit the quick transition points. There have only been 15 totals of 160+ in the Final Four or National Championship in the last 40 years, and 10 of them went under. According to Action Network, this game’s total would be the highest we’ve seen this late in the tournament in 23 years.
Since the Tigers got their defense sorted out just before the Madness, they have seen some low scores, with the last six games all going well below 160 points. When Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has had time to cook up a defensive scheme over 4+ days this year, the under is also 8-3. The reason the total is so high is because of the Gators, who have hit 11 straight overs. The over is just 5-4 when they are favorites or underdogs of 5 or less though. Close games breed low scores.
Best Bet: Game Total Points Under 160.5 (-110)
Player Prop Best Bet
The Final Four is all about star power, and after Duke’s Cooper Flagg, there are no bigger stars left than Walter Clayton Jr. He’s averaged 21.6 points per game with 3.9 threes on 47 percent shooting from the field and from deep since the start of the conference tourney. He’s scored 20+ in five of those seven games and hit 3+ triples in all but one.
We like Clayton’s points prop or his threes prop. He’s offering -145 odds to score 20 points or -120 odds to hit over 2.5 three-balls. He has hit 3+ in seven of eight games and went 4-for-8 from beyond the arc for 19 points in the first meeting between these teams. We’ll take what the sportsbooks give us here and go with the triples.
Best Bet: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120) / Betway
