Early NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2024 Odds & Predictions

We thought we’d continue our series of way-too-early breakdowns of the top individual awards for the 2024 season. We’ve already covered the MVP race here and the OPOY and DPOY situations here. Now, it’s on to Offensive Rookie of the Year Rookie of the Year.

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2024 Betting Odds

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (+160)

When bettors flock to futures odds tables this early, they’re looking for some lucrative odds or at least some solid value relative to their own view of the particular awards race. Who wants to bet on a future at +160 odds only to wait eight months for a tiny payout?

Caleb Williams is the favorite and safest bet, but he’s far from the shoo-in for this award that Ontario sportsbooks are making him out to be. He is an excellent prospect who has seemingly been set up for success with a potent weapons cache around him, but there are a handful of other intriguing options, and the odds disparity places all the value on the field, rather than Caleb.

The ones we like the most here are the ones in the middle of the top 10 on this odds table.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (+650)

Let’s start in the desert, where Marvin Harrison Jr. will be looking to eclipse his Hall of Fame father from the get-go. MHJ should have every chance to smash his father’s rookie numbers: there is no one else on the Cardinals roster that’s going to be challenging him for targets.

The biggest reason, however, is QB Kyler Murray. Say what you want about him, but he knows who his No. 1 option is every year (each year he’s started 14+ games he’s had at least one WR with 100+ targets), and when that guy is a bonafide WR1, he feeds him them to the point of gluttony.

In 2020, with no one to challenge him, DeAndre Hopkins saw a whopping 160 targets from Murray, second most in the league. If MHJ gets that kind of love, we could be seeing Puka Nacua-esque numbers from the former Buckeye. His +650 NFL betting odds are excellent for a guy with a very realistic chance of breaking some rookie receiving records this season.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+900)

At Michigan, McCarthy was not asked to do much because the team was built around the running game. With the oft-injured Aaron Jones as the only back in Minny, this is definitely going to be a pass-first offense, and McCarthy shouldn’t have any issues getting those gears moving.

He’s got Justin Jefferson, who is a QB’s wet dream and should be playing better than ever with his record-setting extension to live up to; Jordan Addison, last year’s first-round pick, is as good a deep threat as anyone in the game today; and T.J. Hockenson is exactly the type of security blanket TE a rookie needs.

Before he went down with his Achilles injury last year, Kirk Cousins was having a truly MVP-caliber campaign with that same supporting cast, so we believe they can push McCarthy to OROY glory as well. However, and this is a big however, this all depends on McCarthy getting on the field in September, because if Sam Darnold holds down the starting gig for too long, this bet is completely off the table.

This last caveat is probably the reason his odds sit at +900, because if he had already been declared the starter, his odds would likely be much shorter. If you think McCarthy can beat out Darnold in camp, the value here is massive.

Best of the Rest

There are a few other long shots that are very deserving of your consideration as well:

• Xavier Worthy, WR (KC) +1,800: Rashee Rice is probably looking at a suspension, and probably some scolding from Andy the Walrus, Travis Kelce is almost 35, and there’s really no one else. Remember what happened last time Patrick Mahomes had a receiver with this type of speed?
• Keon Coleman, WR (BUF) +2,500: Goodbye Stefon Diggs, goodbye Gabe Davis, hello Keon Coleman. The rookie is going to see massive usage from Josh Allen, and though they are expected to run the ball more, the WR1 in Allen’s Buffalo tends to see a lot of targets nonetheless.
• Ladd McConkey, WR (LAC) +3,000: McConkey has the chance to put in a truly special rookie season catching passes from Justin Herbert. Quentin Johnston is still in town, but he was far from impressive as a rookie, and it won’t take much for McConkey to overtake him as WR1. Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball, but when Herbert’s throwing it, the chances are it’ll be going to McConkey, and at +3,000, you’re not gonna get better value.