March Madness Final Four - Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars Best Bets & Odds - April 6
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston - San Antonio, TX @ 8:50PM
Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction
This is a classic showdown of offense versus defense. Houston has the best defense in the nation while Duke boasts the most efficient offense. On top of defense, to complete a March Madness upset, a team needs to shoot well from the perimeter and the charity stripe while limiting their own turnovers.
Houston allowed an average of 55 points to Purdue and Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, and that was no fluke. They allow the fewest points (58.3) in the entire nation, and that’s thanks to both Kelvin Sampson’s game plans as well as the chemistry of this experienced group of Cougars.
We believe that experience will serve them in good stead against a Duke team that is chock full of 18- and 19-year-old freshmen who have never been here before. This group under Sampson has already been to the Final Four, so they won’t be affected by the bright lights.
The Cougars also check the box for three-point shooting, as they lead the nation in shooting percentage from beyond the arc as well. They have been shooting just below 40 percent from deep this year, and they have three starters shooting at a 42 percent clip or better from long range. They hit 16 triples on 44 percent shooting from out there last weekend. While Duke is also elite defensively, they gave up eight triples to Alabama and allowed Arizona to go 12-for-26 from long range in the Sweet Sixteen, a game in which the Wildcats scored 93 points on the Blue Devils.
The Cougars are also top 5 in turnovers per game, with just 9.0, and shoot free throws at a reliable 74 percent clip. With their world class defense and three point shooting paired with their advantage in experience and coaching, Houston has all the ingredients for an upset here. We’ll play it safe, however, and take the spread betting sites are offering on this one.
Best Bet: Houston +5.0 Point Spread (-110)
Over/Under Prediction
Duke scores a lot of points and hits a lot of overs, but not when the games get tight. They went under the total against the high-flying Crimson Tide in the Elite Eight, and the over is now just 2-4 for them against ranked opponents. Houston, meanwhile, has hit just three overs in their last 12 games, and two of those overs had totals under 130.
We’re of the mind that when the tournament gets closer to the end and the games get tighter, the scores get lower too as teams lock in on defense and limit turnovers and transition buckets. Three of the last four Final Four games have gone under the total, and we think both will do so this year. But still, we’ll buy up a couple of points from sports betting apps to make it a bit safer.
Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Under 139.0 (-160)
Player Prop Best Bet
We’re expecting a lot of Sampson’s defensive scheme to focus on stopping Cooper Flagg, so we’re looking at his sidekick, Kon Knueppel for this one. After a slow start to the tourney, Knueppel put up 20+ in back-to-back games in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
Discounting Duke’s first round win over MSM where the starters didn’t need to play much, Knueppel has scored 15+ in 10 of the last 12 games. With Flagg as the focal point taking up all the attention, we think Knueppel will breeze past his 14.5 point prop, which is offering staggeringly good +100 odds.
Best Bet: Kon Knueppel Over 14.5 Points (+100) / Betway
