Copa America 2024: Uruguay vs. USA – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

The group stage at the 2024 Copa America has flown by, and Group C will wrap up their round robin on Monday, July 1. The Uruguay-USA match takes place concurrently with Panama-Bolivia and will take place at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs, in Kansas City, Missouri at 9:00PM E.T.

Uruguay has the top spot pretty much locked up thanks to goal difference, but we doubt they take a day off and simply allow the USA to advance to the knockout stages. The Americans need at least something here, so they are likely to play conservative to start and push the play if/when Panama takes a lead over Bolivia.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Uruguay

The Uruguayans could not have asked for a better start to the tournament, as they’ve won the first two matches by a combined score of 8-1 while compiling a whopping 4.48 xG and 11 big chances in the process.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Sergio Rochet; Defenders: Nahitan Nandez, Ronald Araujo, Mathias Olivera, Matias Vina; Midfielders: Manuel Ugarte, Federico Valverde, Facundo Pellistri, Maximiliano Araujo; Forwards: Nicolas de la Cruz, Darwin Nunez

USA

The Americans have put themselves in quite a pickle here, as the only way to control their own destiny is by beating what has looked like the best team in the tournament so far. A draw would be enough if Panama doesn’t beat Bolivia, but it would be surprising if Bolivia got anything from that match.

Team news: Timothy Weah will not be available after picking up a red card vs. Panama in Matchday 2.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Matt Turner; Defenders: Antonee Robinson, Tim Ream, Chris Richards, Joseph Scally; Midfielders: Giovanni Reyna, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie; Forwards: Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi

• H2H: Uruguay won the only competitive match between these sides at the 1993 Copa
• Uruguay trend – Uruguay has not lost to a CONCACAF side since 2016
• USA trend – The Americans are 1-5-2 in their last 8 matches vs. CONMEBOL
• Darwin Nunez Player trend – Darwin Nunez has scored 10 goals in his last 7 international caps

The trends certainly don’t paint a rosy picture for the Americans in this one. They have really struggled against CONMEBOL in recent times, winning just one of their last eight matches against South American sides, which was the 2-0 win to open this Copa America against a Bolivia team that just got whipped 5-0 by Uruguay.

Compounding that bad omen is Uruguay’s dominance against North and Central American sides over the past several years. In fact, in their last 14 matches against CONCACAF nations, Uruguay is undefeated, a stretch that goes back to 2016. And even then, Mexico needed a red card to get by them.

The odds we’re getting from Ontario sportsbooks and other sites for this match are also head-scratching, as the USA has the shorter moneyline odds to win this one outright, which seems pretty silly. 

This is why we love betting on the USA at major tournaments, because sharper bettors can take advantage of the USMNT tax, which is a whole mess of Americans betting on their side without any knowledge of football (or soccer) and pushing down the odds for their opponent. To that end, Uruguay actually has bettable -196 double chance odds, which are the safest and smartest option here, though we have a better bet for you below.

Darwin Nunez Anytime Scorer (+195) | Sports Interaction

Usually when a game is billed as a pick ‘em like this one, the top scorer or striker for each side is given odds around +100 to +120 to score. But somehow, Sports Interaction and many other sports betting sites have gifted us with +195 odds for a guy who is starting to forget what it feels like to put on the white and blue stripes without scoring a goal.

He’s scored in seven straight caps for his nation, a stretch that includes a brace against Bolivia and a hat trick against Mexico in the two games leading into this tournament. So far in this Copa, he’s scored twice, missed another five big chances, and created 1.63 xG. America has also conceded in six of their last eight matches, and allowed a goal in five of their previous seven matches vs. CONMEBOL competition prior to the Copa. Take these +195 odds and run with them.