Copa America 2024: Brazil vs. Paraguay – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

This 2024 edition of the Copa America has been completely whacky and unpredictable. Not exactly ideal for those of us looking to enjoy some soccer betting during the tourney, but at some point, things will have to cool off. Group D play continues on Friday, June 28, and the late match between Brazil and Paraguay will be crucial. The match will be played in Las Vegas at the home of the NFL’s Raiders, Allegiant Stadium, with kickoff slated for 9:00PM E.T.

On Matchday 1, Brazil found themselves smacking their collective heads against a wall in a 0-0 draw, while Paraguay was beaten by Colombia in a hard-fought 2-1 defeat. Both these nations will pretty much have to get something from this match if they’re going to emerge from the group, so let’s get into our betting preview.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Brazil

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the talent level and depth of this Brazilian squad is as high as it’s been in recent years. They put up a solid performance in their first match of the tourney, they simply couldn’t get around the bus parked in front of the net.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Alisson; Defenders: Danilo, Eder Militao, Marquinhos, Guilherme Arana; Midfielders: Bruno Guimaraes, Joao Gomes, Lucas Paqueta; Forwards: Raphinha, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo

Paraguay

Paraguay were spry and impressive against Colombia, refusing to give in after going down 2-0, pegging Los Cafeteros back to 2-1 and nearly earning the draw in the waning moments of the match. This squad isn’t going to sit back for 90 minutes against Brazil, but at the same time, they’re also one of the most well-organized units in the tournament defensively.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Rodrigo Morinigo; Defenders: Matias Espinoza, Omar Alderete, Fabian Balbuena, Gustavo Velazquez; Midfielders: Hernesto Caballero, Andres Cubas, Mathias Villasanti; Forwards: Julio Enciso, Alex Arce, Miguel Almiron

• H2H: Brazil has won the last 4 straight meetings between these nations
• Brazil trend – Brazil has won just 2 of their last 9 matches in all competitionsParaguay trend – Before the Colombia match, Paraguay had had 9 straight games where both teams didn’t score
• Rodrygo Player trend – Rodrygo scored in the last 2 matches leading up to the tournament and had 6 shots on Matchday 1

Brazil’s recent results are not a pretty sight for any fan of A Selecao, as they’ve won just two matches since September 2023. In fact, that’s actually the exact same amount of victories that their opponent on Friday has had over that span as well. Both sides also put up solid performances in Matchday 1 despite not getting the result they desired.

So, who will get the result they’re looking for this time around? Well, if we’ve learned one thing from this tournament so far, it’s that the underdogs we’re getting from sports betting sites are the furthest thing from that. Of the 14 matches that have been played so far, the favorite has won outright just eight times, which means betting on the extremely short odds for the favorites really isn’t worth it.

It’s also worth noting that while Brazil has won the last four meetings between these nations, Paraguay had gone 5-3-2 in the previous 10 before that, so they know how to get a result against a supposedly “bigger” side. If we were going to bet on the result of this one, which we are not, we would suggest going for the value in Paraguay’s +230 double chance odds.

Under 2.5 Total Goals (+100) | Betway

While Paraguay has won just twice since last September, they have given up more than two goals just once in that time. In fact, eight of their last 10 matches have finished either 1-0 or 0-0. Going back to August 2022, Paraguay has played 17 matches, and there have been more than two total goals just thrice.

1-0 seems to be Paraguay’s favorite scoreline, whether they are on the right side of it or not. Colombia was one of the few teams to squeak two goals by, but they did so by far outscoring their 0.71 xG. While Paraguay is more likely to challenge Brazil than Costa Rica was, they don’t exactly have a potent attacking group, as they’ve been shut out in seven of their last 10 matches. 

Not to mention, Brazil has one of the strongest defensive groups in the tournament to boot. We’re not sure why Ontario sportsbooks have these odds sitting at +100 odds, but we’re not thinking twice here considering Paraguay’s recent run of form.