Copa America 2024: Brazil vs. Colombia – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

Group D wraps up group play for the entire 2024 Copa America tournament on Tuesday night, and there is only one match where they’ll really be playing for something. That’ll be the Brazil-Colombia battle going down at Levi’s Stadium, home of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers, in Santa Clara, California at 9:00PM E.T.

Brazil comes into this one on four points, so they need to win this match if they want to take the top spot in this group. Colombia, meanwhile, has been perfect through two matches, and so with six points, they can sit back and play for a draw here and still win the group to get the easier matchup from Group C for the quarter-finals.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Brazil

Brazil will be favored against whoever they get in the quarter-finals, but they want to go into the knockouts on a good run of form by building on their impressive showing against Paraguay on Matchday 2.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Alisson; Defenders: Wendell, Marquinhos, Eder Militao, Danilo; Midfielders: Joao Gomes, Bruno Guimaraes, Vinicius Junior, Savinho; Forwards: Rodrygo, Lucas Paqueta

Colombia

Talk about a dream start to the tournament. After squeaking out a tough win against Paraguay in which they easily could have lost, they dominated against Costa Rica, scoring three goals where Brazil was unable to score one. They simply need to play mistake-free on Tuesday to get a result and the No. 1 spot in Group D.

Team news: Timothy Weah will not be available after picking up a red card vs. Panama in Matchday 2.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Camilo Vargas; Defenders: Daniel Munoz, Davinson Sanchez, Carlos Cuesta, Johan Mojica; Midfielders: Richard Rios, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias; Forwards: James Rodriguez, Jhon Cordoba, Luis Diaz

• H2H: Colombia has won or drawn 9 of the last 15 meetings
• Brazil trend – Brazil has won just one of their last five matches against CONMEBOL nations
• Colombia trend – Colombia has won 8 straight matches and haven’t lost since February 2022
• Luis Diaz Player trend – Luis Diaz has scored 3 goals in his last 4 matches against Brazil.

Both of these sides are coming off of dominant displays on Matchday 2, with Colombia blanking Costa Rica 3-0 and Brazil finally rediscovering their shooting boots in a 4-1 win over Paraguay. Now, Brazil will need to push the pace and look for a goal, as Colombia would happily walk out of Levi’s Stadium with a scoreless draw.

The fact that Colombia is holding all of the cards should have made a difference in the betting odds, but it seems sports betting sites are still offering up the Brazil tax, which is similar to the USMNT tax, where tons of casual soccer bettors lay money on Brazil, giving their opponents much more lucrative odds than they should.

After their first two performances of the tournament, and the fact that they’ve won or drawn four of the last six against Brazil, Colombia should be getting a lot more respect than +320 odds here. Brazil hasn’t exactly had a great showing at this tournament. Apart from that furious 10-minute stretch before half against Paraguay when they missed a penalty and scored three goals, they’ve looked ordinary, while Colombia has looked creative and compact throughout.

For those reasons, while we don’t want to bet on Colombia outright because of the fact that they don’t need to win, we’re taking their double chance odds, which are, amazingly, still in plus odds, at +100.

Under 2.5 Total Goals (-152) | Sports Interaction

If there’s something that soccer betting during this Copa America—as well as the concurrent Euros—has taught us, it’s that goals are much harder to come by in major tournaments like this, where every team holds a 0-0 draw close to their chest like they’re Gollum and a clean sheet is the One Ring. To that point, 10 of the 18 matches at this Copa have seen fewer than three total goals.

These kinds of low-scoring matches are especially likely when two top teams with a lot to play for come up against one another: 10 of the last 15 meetings between Brazil and Colombia have seen fewer than three goals.

Considering that Colombia is more than happy with a draw here, we can see them packing it in and parking the bus, forcing Brazil to beat a low block, which proved mighty difficult for them against a much lower quality side like Costa Rica. We only wish Sports Interaction and other Ontario sportsbooks would have done us a favor on the odds, though -152 is decent enough.