Copa America 2024: Argentina vs. Peru – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

Group A will wrap up their group play at the 2024 Copa America on Saturday, June 29. With Argentina essentially locked into the top spot in the group, it’s all to play for behind them. Here, we take a look at the matchup between Argentina and Peru, which will be played at the home of the NFL’s Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, with kickoff scheduled for 8:00PM E.T.

Last time out, Argentina eked out a tight win over Chile to secure six points and a spot in the quarterfinals, but they will need to grab a point here to remove any doubt of claiming the top spot. Peru, meanwhile, played a very physical match last time out against Canada, resulting in a red card and a defeat.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Argentina

Argentina has the top spot in Group A secured unless they lose, Canada wins, and Canada also makes up a four-goal difference. Nonetheless, Argentina doesn’t want to go into the knockout stages stale, so expect them to continue to play the quality football we’ve been seeing so far in this tourney.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Emiliano Martinez; Defenders: Nicolas Tagliafico, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nahuel Molina; Midfielders: Nicolas Gonzalez, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo de Paul; Forwards: Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez

Peru

Peru has attempted to play a pair of scrappy matches, and they haven’t gotten much for their efforts except a scoreless draw and a red card for their starting right back. This is a tournament to forget for Peru, and Argentina is likely to bounce them on Saturday night.

Team news: Miguel Araujo will miss the match after picking up a straight red against Canada on Matchday 2.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Pedro Gallese; Defenders: Anderson Santamaria, Carlos Zambrano, Alexander Callens; Midfielders: Andy Polo, Sergio Pena, Wilder Cartagena, Piero Quispe, Marcos Lopez; Forwards: Gianluca Lapadula, Edison Flores

• H2H: Argentina has won or drawn the last 16 meetings between these sides
• Argentina trend – Argentina has not lost to Peru since 1997
• Peru trend – Peru has failed to score in 9 of their last 12 matches
• Lionel Messi Player trend – Messi has scored at least 1 goal in group play of 8 of the 9 major tournaments he’s been to

Argentina came into this tournament as the favorites, and they’ve done nothing to dispel that notion through the first two matches. They’ve only scored three goals through these two matches, but they could have easily won both matches 3-0, and we think that might just happen this time around.

Peru has been surviving on emotion and physicality in this tournament, committing 35 fouls so far, but Argentina is a team that has stars that know how to play against those types of squads, as well as the prickly defenders to step up if there is indeed a situation that arises.

Peru has yet to score in this tournament, and they now go up against a defense that has yet to allow a goal at Copa America. Argentina hasn’t lost to this nation since 1997, a span of 16 matches, including a three-match winning streak dating back to 2020. Argentina seems like a lock here, and with -200 odds from Ontario sportsbooks, it’s not the worst value.

Lionel Messi Anytime Scorer (+105) | Betway

We’ve been banking on Lionel Messi to play like he’s the best player in this tournament, and while he has put together a couple of solid performances, he hasn’t been able to find the back of the net for us just yet. However, we still have faith, especially with the plus odds we’re getting from sports betting sites like Betway.

Messi was an absolute monster against Canada in the opening match, putting up a whopping 0.64 xG, five shots, three of which were on target, and missing two big chances. Messi only took one shot against Chile, but we just can’t imagine him going through a whole group stage without at least one goal.

And why is that? It’s because of the nine major tournaments (World Cup or Copa) that Messi has attended, he’s scored during the group stage at eight of them, with the 2010 World Cup the lone exception. While he didn’t score in his first four meetings with Peru, he scored a brace against them in their most recent matchup in October 2023.