Copa America 2024: Argentina vs. Ecuador – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

The quarter-finals of the 2024 Copa America get underway in the USA on American Independence Day. Smells like freedom. Defending champs and Group A winners Argentina will get it started against Group B runner-up Ecuador on Thursday, July 4 at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Houston Texans, in Houston, Texas at 9:00PM E.T.

Argentina pretty much breezed through group play, winning all three matches and conceding zero goals. They’ll look to keep that up against Ecuador, who came in as the group favorites and ended up just squeaking into the knockout stages on goal difference.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Argentina

La Albiceleste are on a special run right now. They’ve rolled through the group stage as the only nation to win every match without conceding a goal. Since the start of 2022, Argentina has won 31 matches, drawn one (friendly), and lost one (friendly).

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Emiliano Martinez; Defenders: Nicolas Tagliafico, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nahuel Molina; Midfielders: Nicolas Gonzalez, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo de Paul; Forwards: Julian Alvarez, Lionel Messi

Ecuador

Ecuador must have come into this Copa America with high hopes of progressing far in this tournament, as they were plopped into the weakest group. Alas, they were only able to beat the Jamaicans. At least they didn’t miss out on the knockouts altogether, like Mexico.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Alexander Dmoinguez; Defenders: Piero Hancapie, Willian Pacho, Felix Torres, Angelo Preciado; Midfielders: Moises Caicedo, Alan Franco, Jeremy Sarmiento, Kendry Paez; Forwards: Enner Valencia, Kevin Rodriguez

• H2H: Argentina are undefeated against Ecuador in their last 7 meetings.
• Argentina trend – Argentina has won 23 and lost 1 since the start of the 2022 World Cup.
• Ecuador trend – Ecuador is 2-2-2 in their last 6 matches against South American nations
• Lionel Messi Player trend – Messi has scored 7 goals in 6 competitive starts against Ecuador.

Argentina has played 33 matches since the start of 2022, both competitive and non-competitive. They’ve won 31 of those contests, with the two they didn’t win falling into the “friendly” category. They’ve also been historically dominant against Ecuador, losing just five of the 40 all-time meetings. They’ve been even better recently, winning six and drawing one against the Ecuadorians since 2017.

Ecuador are a solid unit that would have a fighting chance here against perhaps any other outfit apart from maybe Uruguay, but Argentina are just too talented, too deep, and too organized. La Albiceleste should win this in regulation, though their -222 odds moneyline from sports betting sites means it’s more of a parlay piece than a solo bet.

Lionel Messi Anytime Scorer (+110) | Sports Interaction

One of these days, Lionel Messi is going to score another goal. And when he does, we will be there. We believe that day is Independence Day, when he and his Argentinians square off with Ecuador in the Copa America quarterfinal.

Argentina already had the group wrapped up by Matchday 3, so Messi played in just the first two matches. Against Canada, he could have easily had a hat trick, against Chile, he was much more laid back.

Messi has only scored three times in 12 Copa America knockout matches, but he’s also never been held scoreless for an entire major tournament (Copa or WC). The cherry on top of this soccer betting bull’s eye is this: Messi has started six competitive games against Ecuador in his career, and he’s scored seven goals, including at least one goal in five of those matches. 

The +110 odds we’re getting from Sports Interaction and other Ontario sportsbooks are going to come home to roost one of these days, why not Independence Day?