Copa America 2024: Argentina vs. Chile – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

The 2024 Copa America continues with some crucial matchups for Group A on Tuesday, June 25, and the match we’re taking a closer look at is the evening offering between Argentina and Chile. The match will take place in New Jersey at the home of the NFL’s Giants and Jets, MetLife Stadium, with kickoff coming at 9:00PM E.T.

On Matchday 1, Argentina took a little while to get into the groove of things, but eventually put together a comfortable 2-0 win in which they had many more chances. Chile, meanwhile, played to a 0-0 draw against Peru despite dominating possession and winning the xG battle.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Argentina

If Argentina wasn’t already the team to beat at this tourney, they certainly are now after Brazil suffered a scoreless draw on Monday. There is simply no roster with as much talent and depth as this group. And the crazy part is they’ve got that quality spread out perfectly through each level. Heck, Lautaro Martinez couldn’t even make it into the starting 11!

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Emiliano Martinez; Defenders: Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Marcos Acuna, Nahuel Molina; Midfielders: Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Angel Di Maria; Forwards: Julian Alvarez, Lionel Messi

Chile

Chile is a good, solid team, but apart from Alexis Sanchez there’s not a ton of top end quality in attacking areas, which might make it tough for them to keep pace with La Albiceleste here.

Team news: No recent major injuries or outstanding suspension risks.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Claudio Bravo; Defenders: Paulo Diaz, Igor Lichnovsky, Gabriel Suazo, Mauricio Isla; Midfielders: Alexis Sanchez, Erick Pulgar, Marcelino Nunez, Diego Valdes, Victor Davila; Forwards: Eduardo Vargas

• H2H: Chile has only won eight of the 95 all-time matches between these nations
• Argentina trend – Argentina has won 13 of their 15 matches to nil since the World Cup Final
• Chile trend – Both teams have not scored in eight of Chile’s last nine matches
• Lionel Messi Player trend – Messi has scored in three of his last four matches vs. Chile

There’s really not much we can say here, Argentina is almost surely going to win this one. The only way they don’t is if Chile plays Argentina exactly like Peru played Chile in their opening match 0-0 draw. In that game, Peru allowed Chile all of the possession, but they ended up winning the shots on target battle 4-1 while putting up similar xG numbers.

To have a chance, Chile must sit back and park the bus, waiting for the perfect opportunity to send Alexis Sanchez on the counter. A player of Sanchez’s caliber can certainly make any team pay in the open field in the transition game, but the real question is whether they can keep Argentina out of their net if they do sit back.

For our money, Argentina will find a way through, they simply have too many world-class players at the top of the pitch with Messi, Alvarez, and Martinez. This feels like the point at which these two nations have had their largest gap in terms of quality since Chile’s epic back-to-back Copa wins in 2015 and 2016. Take Argentina here, and with the surprisingly reasonable -213 odds we’re getting on their moneyline from sports betting sites, it could be a great piece for a parlay.

Lionel Messi Anytime Scorer (+105) | Sports Interaction

We’re not sure what happened since last Thursday, when Lionel Messi dominated and accumulated six shots and three shots on target, to make his anytime scorer odds drop from -138 to +105, but we’re not complaining to any Ontario sportsbooks about it.

On any other day, Messi might have had a hat trick against Canada in that match, but he just seemed a little too nonchalant when making his final move. That won’t happen again, and he’ll likely be looking to make up for those flubs on Matchday 1 here against Chile. 

Not to mention, Messi has some sort of grudge against Chile, who he generally dominates, tallying five goals and two assists in nine career games against Argentina’s neighbors to the West. That includes three goals and an assist in the last four meetings between these nations. This one feels like a lock.