Copa America 2024: Argentina vs. Canada – Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

We’re down to the final four at this 2024 Copa America, and the nation everyone expected to be here is going up against the nation no one expected to be here, as favorites Argentina take on debutantes Canada for the second time at this tournament. The showdown will be happening on Tuesday, July 9 at MetLife Stadium, home of the NFL’s New York Giants and Jets, in East Rutherford, New Jersey at 8:00PM E.T.

Argentina have been as solid as anyone could have expected the No. 1 nation in the world to be, though talisman Lionel Messi has been well below his usual standard. Canada, meanwhile, has scrapped their way to a semi-final in their first ever Copa America appearance.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction

Argentina

Argentina somewhat breezed through group play, but they weren’t exactly dominant, and Messi’s many missed chances eventually came back to bite them, as they just barely scraped by Ecuador after Messi missed a panenka attempt in the penalty shootout. After that scare, they’re unlikely to take Canada lightly.

Team news: No one will be suspended for this match.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Emiliano Martinez; Defenders: Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Midfielders: Rodrigo de Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Nicolas Gonzalez; Forwards: Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez

Canada

Canada was not expected to do much in their first ever appearance, but here they are, in the final four. They have proven themselves much more resourceful than many thought, and they showed their mettle despite their age in taking the lead against Venezuela, staying cool after they were pegged back, and winning the shootout.

Team news: No one will be suspended for this match.

Predicted Lineup: Keeper: Maxime Crepeau; Defenders: Alphonso Davies, Derek Cornelius, Moise Bombito, Alistair Johnston; Midfielders: Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Jacob Shaffelburg, Richie Laryea; Forwards: Jonathan David, Cyle Larin

• H2H: These nations have met twice, and both meetings were won to nil by Argentina.
• Argentina trend – Argentina has won every game they’ve played but one since June 2022.
• Canada trend – There have been 2 or fewer goals in 6 of Canada’s last 7 matches.
• Lautaro Martinez Player trend – Lautaro Martinez has scored 7 goals in his last 7 appearances.

If Argentina hadn’t come so close to crashing out against Ecuador in the quarter-finals, we might have given Canada a chance here just based on the hubris the No. 1 team in the world was likely to bring to this game in that scenario. But after that scare, Argentina is going to be laser focused on fulfilling their destiny as the tournament favorites.

Apart from Messi, Argentina have looked near-perfect, as strange as that is to say. They’ve been defensively pristine, as the only goal they’ve allowed was a stoppage time fluke against Ecuador. Their midfield has been both strong and energetic, and the attack with Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez has been lethal.

Canada has been through the gauntlet, but they’re still alive. For most of this tournament, Jesse Marsch has gone against his usual tactics and played very defensive football, as they’ve sat back and tried to play on the counter. That resulted in a few good chances against Argentina in the opener, but we doubt the Canadian defenses will be able to keep Argentina out of their net. 

Argentina will win this one in regulation, but considering the odds we’re getting for their moneyline from Ontario sportsbooks, a much better option would be the under on the total goals prop at -128, or even the -196 odds on the “both teams to score - no” prop.

Lautaro Martinez Anytime Scorer (+110) | Sports Interaction

Lionel Messi was supposed to be a golden soccer betting goose in this tournament, but instead, he’s been a dud. He’s provided a couple of assists, but those have been overshadowed by missed chances and a blown panenka in the quarter-final penalty shootout. His striking partner, Lautaro Martinez, has made up for him, however.

The Inter Milan man was already hot coming into this tournament, having scored thrice in the three matches leading up to this one, but he’s gone human torch since arriving in the USA. 

He scored in every group stage game despite coming on as a sub in two of them, and he wrested the starting job from Julian Alvarez in the process. With Messi out of plus odds range, the best option sports betting sites are giving us is Martinez at +110, and we’ll take that gladly.