Copa America 2024: Best Bets & Parlay | July 2

The final day of Group D group play will be interesting because unless Costa Rica somehow makes up a six-goal difference on Brazil, the Colombians and Brazilians are already locked into the top two spots. However, that won’t stop Paraguay and Costa Rica from duking it out for bragging rights, and for Brazil and Colombia to play a cagey match with the top spot on the line.

Odds provided by Betway

Under 2.5 Goals (-152) | Betway

It’s all to play for in this matchup. With Colombia sitting on six points and Brazil on four, whoever wins this one tops the group. Because of that, we’re expecting this to be a cagey affair with both teams holding down the defensive fort, at least to start.

Colombia is fine with a draw, so it will be Brazil that will need to push the envelope, and we’ve seen against Costa Rica when they can run up against a wall when they get desperate offensively.

Seven of Brazil’s last 11 matches have gone below three goals, and of the 20 meetings between these nations since 1997, 14 have gone under the 2.5 goal total here. Colombia has pulled a shutout in six of their last 10 as well.

Considering the winner of the group gets a suspect USA squad and the loser gets a flying Uruguay side, there’s clearly something to play for, and both sides will be cautious not to blink first, which will lead to a low-scoring affair.

Paraguay to Win (+110) | Betway

Paraguay has scored a goal in both of their losses, but still somehow find themselves below Costa Rica in the table despite the fact that the Central American nation has yet to score a goal or create a ‘big chance’.

Paraguay actually won the xG battle against Colombia despite losing the match, and they had 0.87 xG and a pair of big chances against Brazil, though a 10-minute stretch before half that saw the Brazilians score thrice squandered that match for them.

Costa Rica has really struggled against CONMEBOL competition recently: in their last seven such matches, they’ve lost five and drawn a pair. Not to mention, Paraguay has won four straight against CONCACAF sides. We greatly appreciate Ontario sportsbooks for giving us plus odds on Paraguay’s moneyline here.

Over 1.5 Total Goals (-238) | Betway

Both of these teams have essentially already been eliminated, so they have no reason to play boring, cagey football, and can instead unleash their respective offensive attacks in full force without worry of letting one get past them.

Costa Rica hasn’t offered anything at all going forward so far in this tournament, but we expect them to take the shackles off in this one, and Paraguay has shown themselves to be a likely dancing partner, having scored in both games and created five big chances already. Six of Costa Rica’s last nine matches have seen 3+ goals, and ditto for three of Paraguay’s last four, including both matches in this tournament.

We went an extra notch lower here to take 1.5 goals instead of 2.5 just to be safe, which we were able to do because of the very generous odds sports betting sites are offering on Paraguay here.