Usually, the biggest matchups for each NFL game week are flexed to one of the three primetime slots, but for Week 4, it seems that NFL Red Zone fans will be getting the spiciest contest on the slate.
The red hot Miami Dolphins will visit the division rival Buffalo Bills, who come into this game as somewhat surprising moneyline favorites on most NFL betting sites.
The Buffalo Bills got their season off to an ignominious start when they lost to the Aaron Rodgers-less New York Jets in Week 1. Since then, they’ve looked like themselves in two big wins against the Raiders and Commanders in which the combined score was 75-13. Miami, for their part, has looked like the team to beat in the NFL after a dominant 3-0 start in which they’ve scored a ridiculous 130 points. All odds provided by Betway.
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
| Buffalo Bills | -152 | -3.0 (-110) | O53.5 (-110) |
| Miami Dolphins | +125 | +3.0 (-110) | U53.5 (-110) |
Fans of Sunday afternoon football everywhere are ecstatic with the Week 4 slate, which features this juicy AFC East rivalry matchup with the scorching Miami Dolphins heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Usually, the best matchup of the week is either in the late 4pm window or on Sunday night, but this week, the sun will be shining for the slate’s most intriguing game.
Over the past two weeks, there aren’t two teams that have looked much better than the Dolphins and Bills, who combined to outscore their opponents in Week 2 and 3 by 169-50. That’s domination right there, especially on the offensive side.
In terms of points, the Dolphins lead the league and the Bills come in at fourth. Miami also leads the league in yards while the Bills sit in eighth. Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Stefon Diggs vs. Tyreek Hill. Gabe Davis vs. Jaylen Waddle. James Cook vs. Raheem Mostert. The offensive firepower in this contest is enough to make your head spin.
This one is no doubt going to be a very tight contest considering the similarly strong rosters and the divisional familiarity. But while the result is tough to pin down, the game script is a little bit easier to predict considering how these offenses have played through the first month.
In the only game where one of these teams played a top offense, the Dolphins and L.A. Chargers put up a combined 70 points, so we feel pretty confident that the 53.5 total for this matchup is well within reach for the over. This will be the highest total of this young NFL season, but we like both offenses to come out with the bit between their teeth and hit this over without a sweat.
In terms of who’s going to win this game, we’re leaning slightly towards the Bills here. As we said, both offenses are elite, so the difference is likely to come with the defensive performances. While Buffalo’s defense has been playing like one of the best units in the NFL, their Miami counterpart hasn’t looked nearly as impressive.
Buffalo has given up just 35 points through three weeks, second-fewest in football. They’ve also allowed just 759 yards, which is also second-fewest.
In terms of first downs allowed, guess where they’re ranked? That’s right, their 41 first downs allowed are second-fewest in football. First place in all of those categories goes to the Cleveland Browns, by the way. Conversely, there’s really nothing special about the Dolphins defense.
The numbers surrounding Allen also point to a Buffalo win. In games with spreads of three or fewer, Allen is 16-10 SU and 16-9-1 ATS. As a home favorite, Allen is 28-7 SU, not to mention the fact that the Bills have won seven straight home games against Miami and have gone 11-1 SU in the last dozen matchups in Buffalo.
With that in mind, we’re rolling with Buffalo on the moneyline at -152 odds, which are pretty solid. 58 of Allen’s 44 career wins have come by seven or more points as well, so the -3.0 point spread at -110 is also a solid bet here too.
One thing the Bills defense hasn’t been great at so far this year is limiting opposing running backs. Raheem Mostert has had a great start to this season, and considering the Bills have been giving up an NFL-high 5.9 yards per carry, this surfing home run hitter could have another good day. We like the over on his 52.5 rushing yards prop at -115 odds as he has eclipsed that number in each of the last two games.
Another one we like is the over on Gabe Davis’ receiving yards prop. Davis has only eclipsed the 43.5 total once this season, but with one of the only remaining lockdown corners in Miami’s Xavien Howard lining up across from Buffalo No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs, this could be a big day for Davis. Take his over at -115 odds here.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
