We’re into the back half of the 2023 NFL season, and with each passing week, we get a bigger sample size of what every player in the league can do in the situation he’s in.
With that in mind, we’ve got a few interesting player prop plays to break down that are offering tons of value, including betting markets such as anytime touchdown, rush yards, receiving yards, and more from the top betting sites in Canada.
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
This here is an example of an elite player who is beyond due for a big game—he’s hit the under on this prop in five straight games. Davante Adams can still put up elite numbers, he just needs a quarterback that’s gonna give him a chance to make plays rather than throwing uncatchables. Now, with the Raiders having cleaned house and Jimmy Garoppolo benched, there seems to be a new, positive mood around the team, and Adams is likely to benefit from that.
It’s also worth noting that a reliable, sure-handed, crisp route-running receiver like Adams is likely to see a lot of looks from a rookie quarterback trying to figure it out. The Giants are a pretty good passing defense, but they don’t have that lockdown corner that can take Adams out of the game. We like Adams to hit the over here as the Raiders see the new coach bounce.
Despite going toe to toe with a billionaire owner, Jonathan Taylor held out and got his wish, a big fat new contract. He’s only played in four games this year, but the early returns are encouraging. The very early returns were ambiguous as he was not given double digit carries in his first two games back, leading him to hit the under in both games.
However, he has seen a sharp uptick over the last two weeks, totaling 30 carries during that span. He hit the over a couple of weeks ago against the vaunted Browns defense with 75 yards and did it again with 95 against the Saints last week. The Panthers give up over 30 more rush yards per game than New Orleans, and considering the Panthers are 1-6, the Colts could be possessing the ball a lot on Sunday, which means a heavy dose of Taylor.
When a fifth-round rookie quarterback is thrown into the fire for his first NFL start, how do you expect them to play? More importantly, how is Kevin O’Connell going to allow Jaren Hall to play? We say they go with the conservative approach, and that means a lot of short, easy throws, and that means big security blanket T.J. Hockenson.
The tight end has been excellent this year either way, averaging 5.6 receptions a game and hitting the over on this prop in six of eight games, including the last three in a row, when he’s caught 6, 11, and 6. He’s also going up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed opposing tight ends to do some damage this year to the tune of 45 receptions, tied for sixth-most in the league. We like Hockenson to be a big part of the plan in this one.
Buffalo Bills star quarterback Josh Allen has been having a topsy-turvy season so far. One of the weirdest things about it has been that the uber-athletic Allen has been surprisingly shy about tucking and running during this campaign. Through his first five seasons in the league, Allen averaged about 40 rushing yards per game. Through eight games in 2023, he’s going for just over 23. Something’s gotta give if the Bills are going to unlock their potential this year and start playing with some consistency.
Allen hit the under on this prop in six of his first seven games, but the only time he hit was against the Commanders, who are specifically bad at stopping running quarterbacks. The same could be said of the Bengals, who are giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game to QBs this year, 27.9 to be exact. We like Allen to run wild and hit the over on this one early in a thriller on Sunday night.
A bonus one for this week, we return to Atlanta for another tight end prop. Taylor Heinicke would seem to be the type of quarterback who will sling the rock a lot more than his shaky predecessor, Desmond Ridder. Pitts has hit the over on this prop in four straight, and he’s gone for 43+ in three of his last four. Not to mention that Drake London will be out, meaning there are a lot of targets up for grabs, and Pitts is at the top of the list to get that overflow.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
