Five weeks into the season, and there are more questions than answers around the NFL. Week 6 could be a telling one, however, so let’s dive into the Sunday slate to see what kind of player props are offering us some value on the Lord’s Day this week.
We’ll be considering all the best player props including betting markets such as anytime touchdown, rush yards, receiving yards, and more from the top NFL sportsbooks.
All odds provided by Betway.
The New York Jets were supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL this year, but that has not come to fruition at all, and this isn’t one they can’t blame on Aaron Rodgers’ shoddy achilles tendon.
They have allowed the fourth most rushing yards through five games, 146 per game to be exact, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most ground yards to running backs specifically. Swift is averaging over 100 yards in his four games as the lead back, having eclipsed this game’s total in three out of four.
Another thing the Jets struggle to do is defend the tight end. The five touchdowns tight ends have scored on them is the most in the league, and their 289 yards allowed to tight ends is ninth-most.
Goedert may have started the season terribly, but he was back in a big way last week, posting eight receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. So, considering New York’s struggles against his position and how low his total is, we’re all over the over for Philly’s tight end.
We really wanted to go with Mostert’s anytime touchdown prop here, but considering it’s way up at -175 odds, we figured we’d look for more value. The Dolphins are going up against the Panthers on Sunday, and the Panthers have been atrocious defending the run.
They have allowed eight rushing TDs to running backs (most in the NFL), they’ve allowed 640 rush yards to running backs (third most), and they’re allowing over five yards a carry to RBs. And this is all before mentioning that Mostert will have the run of the backfield with rookie De’Von Achane on the shelf for the next few weeks.
Mostert was the main guy in Weeks 2 and 3 and he put up 121 and 82 yards, respectively. Achane has stolen his thunder somewhat over the last couple of weeks, but now it’s Mostert’s turn again. With how poor Carolina is defending the run and the expected game script that will see the Dolphins go up early and play with a big lead, we wouldn’t be surprised if Mostert hits this one in the first quarter.
I know, I know, we just said that -175 odds weren’t offering enough value for Mostert, but McCaffrey is a different case altogether. The Niners running back has scored in 14 straight games, and if he scores again against the Browns, he’ll have the second-longest TD streak in NFL history. No doubt Kyle Shanahan and the rest of the team are aware of this.
But can they get it done against this elite Browns defense? Cleveland is giving up just 15 points and under 200 yards per game so far this year. San Francisco might have the best offense in the league, so it will be interesting to see that juggernaut going against an immovable object.
Cleveland will make it tough for the Niners, but we have a hard time believing that Brock Purdy and company will be held without a touchdown all night. In a rainy game where points could be at a premium, the guy who’s most likely to score is McCaffrey, so we’re rolling with ol’ reliable.
QB rushing props are the type of prop that you could hit in one play, so you’re always on the edge of your seat. Ridder has been back and forth with his running this year, going for 10 last week, nine in the two weeks prior combined, and 39 the week before that.
Whether we get antsy Ridder who likes to exit the pocket quickly and use his legs or the calm Ridder that stays in the pocket, we think there will be at least one or two running opportunities on Sunday against the Commanders.
Washington is in the bottom 10 in both yards and points allowed, so the Falcons should be able to get a lot of things going. One aspect of the game the Commanders struggle with especially is keeping running quarterbacks in the pocket. Russell Wilson ran for 56 on them, Josh Allen ran for 46, Jalen Hurts went for 34, and Justin Fields went for 57 last week.
The Commanders have seen more quarterback runs (34) and more quarterback rushing yards (188) than any team in football. Ridder should have no problem getting 10.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
