We’re nearing the quarter mark of this 2023 NFL season, and it’s time to take a look at the Week 4 Sunday slate. If you want to get in on a bit of extra action, look no further, because we’ve got you covered.
We’ll be taking a look at some of the best player props that are offering the most value including betting markets such as anytime touchdown, rush yards, receiving yards, and more from the top NFL sportsbooks.
All odds provided by Betway.
One of the most intimidating defenses in the league this year has been the Dallas Cowboys’ unit, which has one of the best pass rushes in football. Led by all-world edge rusher Micah Parsons, they’ve already racked up 12 sacks through three games, tied for third-most in the NFL.
Going up against that rush will be New England’s mediocre signal caller Mac Jones. Jones has rushed for 15, 25, and 13 yards in the first three games on 11 carries, so he’s been running a decent amount this year.
The Cowboys just so happen to have given up the most rushing yards to QBs so far this year, and with our success with Josh Dobbs on this same prop last week, we like the good times to keep rolling and Jones to hit his rushing yards over.
Isaiah Pacheco - Over 53.5 rush yards (-115 odds)
The Kansas City Chiefs head to New York to take on the tragic Jets on Sunday Night Football. The Jets have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL since they pulled off what’s looking more and more like a fluky win against Buffalo in Week 1. And one of the things they’ve been particularly bad at is stopping the run.
While they haven’t yet given up a rushing touchdown, they have been giving up the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs through three weeks. The 85 running back totes they’ve faced are also fourth-most in football. The reason for this is that the Jets have been falling behind early in their last two games.
We expect that to happen again on Sunday night with Taylor Swift looking on. The Chiefs will go ahead early and start riding the Pacheco train all the way to the final bell. It doesn’t hurt that Pacheco has also eclipsed this prop’s number in two straight games coming into SNF.
Another one we love from the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Jets is the man of the hour, Mr. Travis Kelce. Last week, Taylor Swift came to see the big guy play and he found pay dirt. With Swift expected to be in attendance today, I expect Kelce to do it again.
We were considering his yardage prop, but with the game script we’re predicting, he might not have time to rack up enough yards. What he can do in a short time is score a touchdown, which we expect him to do to maintain Swift’s role as his good luck charm.
Look, it’s not just the Swift effect. The Jets are also atrocious when it comes to defending tight ends. They’re tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends with three, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most yards to tight ends. What do you think the best tight end in football is going to do to a defense like that?
The San Francisco 49ers have looked darn good through the first three weeks of the season, and a big reason for that is the potent run game they’ve put together. At the forefront of that is Christian McCaffrey, who’s come out of the gates on fire to start the 2023 season.
In Week 4, the 49ers are -14.5 point favorites against the lowly Arizona Cardinals, which means this is not likely to be a close game. The 49ers have been dominating everybody right from the opening kickoff each week, so they’re usually trying to hold onto leads for much of the game, which is conducive to more running.
This could very well be a blowout, so McCaffrey is going to get a ton of looks in Santa Clara on Sunday. Strangely, his number sits at just 80.5, which is a number he has hit in every game so far this season. The Cardinals also give up the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL, so the over here is a no-brainer.
There aren’t many worse defenses in the NFL right now than the Los Angeles Chargers. They’ve given up the most TDs and receiving yards to wide receivers in the league, and with one of the best at the position, Davante Adams, coming to town, we expect those issues to continue. Adams’ five red zone targets are tied for fifth most this season, and he’s already got two touchdowns to boot. Adams’ value on his anytime touchdown prop made this an easy call.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
