Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season has arrived, and we continue to gather more and more data to help us handicap the results this Sunday. But while that is true, a lot has also changed in the league over the past month, with some teams and players flying up the ladder and some tumbling right down.
We’re scouring the slate for the best value in player prop betting markets such as anytime touchdown, rush yards, receiving yards, and more from the top NFL betting sites.
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
After years toiling as a journeyman backup, Josh Dobbs has shown that he can lead an offense this season, and in his first game with his new team, the Minnesota Vikings, he overachieved like you would not believe in one of the most heartwarming stories of the year.
What he has done on a consistent basis is tuck and run, and he’s done so about as successfully as any QB in a league that includes guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: only Jackson has more rushing yards than Dobbs’ 324. And even with that nine-week sample size, books still have his rushing prop at a measly 28.5. He has hit the over on this prop in six of his last eight games, and in each of those six games he topped 40 yards, including last week, when he had 66 with the Vikes.
Considering the Saints have a strong pass rush, Dobbs is likely to be flushed from the pocket often, which means a lot of opportunities to rack up rushing yards. It’s not like he’d be the first one to do it against New Orleans’ defense either: they’ve given up the third-most rushing yards to QBs in 2023. Take the over here at lovely -110 odds.
George Pickens has been having a breakout year for the Steelers, but over the last few weeks, the return of Diontae Johnson has eaten into his production in a massive way. He’s got just 21 yards over his last two performances, including a two-catch, -1-yard performance last week. After that stinker, Pickens was not shy about sharing his disappointment concerning his lack of usage.
However, his head coach, the great Mike Tomlin, came out in defense of his young receiver, which would lead us to believe that the team is backing Pickens here. That means that there will be a concerted effort to get him more involved in the offense early on. All Pickens needs is a couple of those patented sideline back-shoulder throws he and Kenny Pickett have perfected, and he’ll be right on the doorstep of the over here.
With David Montgomery missing time over the last few weeks, first round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has finally been getting some run with the Lions, and he took his opportunity with both hands. With Montgomery back in the mix this week, Gibbs’ usage will decrease, but he has definitely earned a lot more looks than he was getting prior to Montgomery’s injury.
This week, Gibbs and company get the Los Angeles Chargers, who have been one of the worst teams against the pass this season. They’ve been especially bad defending backs running patterns out of the backfield, which Gibbs is likely to be doing a lot with Montgomery slated to take on the bulk of the rushing opportunities.
The Chargers have given up the second-most receiving yards to running backs this season, and with Gibbs’ number at just 18.5 after going for 58 and 37 receiving yards in his last two games, he seems like a shoo-in to hit the over for the third straight week.
The Washington Commanders have been positively porous on defense this year, having given up the most yards and second most points in 2023. They’ve also given up the fourth-most passing yards this year, and while we considered Geno Smith’s passing yards prop here, 260 is a bit of a high number considering the QB has only topped that twice this year.
Metcalf’s number is a lot more reasonable, especially with the Commanders sitting in second place in terms of yards allowed to wideouts. He’s also topped this 66.5 total in four of his last six outings. The Seahawks got beat like they stole something last week, so they’ll be chomping at the bit to put up a big bounce back performance against lesser competition in this spot.
Though this one’s not from the Sunday slate, it was too good to pass up. Dalton Kincaid has been a man on a mission since fellow Buffalo tight end Dawson Knox went down. The first round rookie seems to have clearly claimed the spot as Josh Allen’s second favorite target, piling up 23 receptions for 221 yards over the last three games. Did we mention he’s going up against the Broncos, who give up the most yards to tight ends in the league?
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
