The run-in for the 2022-23 Premier League season rolls on as second place Arsenal host seventh place Brighton in a very intriguing match between arguably the two biggest overachievers of the campaign.
Arsenal beat Brighton 4-2 earlier in the Premier League season but Brighton beat Arsenal 3-1 to boot them from the League Cup. Despite a recent rough patch, Arsenal seems to have rediscovered their form and come into this one as the big-time moneyline favorites on all sports betting sites.
Arsenal are sitting on 81 points with three matches left while Brighton currently has 55 points with five matches remaining. Both teams still have a lot to play for as Arsenal will be looking to maintain the pressure on Man City for the league title while Brighton will be gunning to earn European football for the first time in their history. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
|
Team |
Moneyline |
Total Goals (O/U) |
|
Arsenal |
-142 |
O2.5 (-185) |
|
Brighton & Hove Albion |
+319 |
U2.5 (+132) |
|
Draw |
+294 |
|
The youngest team in the Premier League, Arsenal certainly looked like it during their recent four-match winning drought. The pressure of the moment was clearly on their mind and the lack of experience in the squad meant they could not overcome that.
However, they’ve battled back nicely in their last two matches, winning convincingly against Chelsea 3-1 and following that up with a very impressive performance in a 2-0 win against Newcastle at St. James Park, one of the most hostile environments in the Premier League.
The biggest difference is that manager Mikel Arteta finally accepted that something had to change, so he swapped the slow-footed Rob Holding for the quicker and younger Jakob Kiwior, who the team bought during the January transfer window.
The Polish center back made his first Premier League start in that Chelsea game and played very well, showing confidence on the ball and the combination of athleticism and poise necessary to be a good center back.
Another major change Arteta has made over the past two games is slotting Jorginho, another January window acquisition, into the central midfield role in place of Thomas Partey, who has been in very poor form the last few games. There have been reports that the Ghanaian has been carrying a knock, so that could be a contributing factor as well.
Whatever the reason, Jorginho has looked good at the controls in the heart of midfield. While he doesn’t have nearly the pace of Partey, he’s a much more cerebral player who is a little bit more crisp and incisive with his passing.
Curiously, Arsenal have been the best road team in the league while not quite playing up to that standard at home. They’ve given up the ninth-most goals at home while scoring the second-most, so it’s no surprise that the over 2.5 total goals prop is set at -185 odds.
It’s not quite as lucrative as we might like, but it’s a pretty darn safe bet nonetheless. If you want to bump it up to 3.5 goals you get much more appealing +130 odds as well.
Brighton have been having one of the most surprising seasons in recent Premier League memory. They came up to the Premier League in 2017 after having stewed in the lower divisions for over 30 years and after four finishes in the bottom five of the Premier League, they were able to jump up into the top half of the table last season.
They’ve got their eyes on a lot more than that this year. Brighton are currently in seventh place, but they’ve played just 33 games so far, lowest in the Premier League. Theoretically they can still finish top four, though that seems unlikely. If they can catch Tottenham and/or Liverpool, however, they will be able to earn European football next season for the first time in the club’s history.
Brighton will be in tough, however, as they will have to play four of those five games in a 10-day span. Because of that, there’s a possibility that manager Roberto De Zerbi focuses on more winnable games after Arsenal such as their matches with Southampton and Aston Villa.
Brighton has had such a successful season—one which includes doing the double against Manchester United and Chelsea as well as an FA Cup semifinal appearance—on the back of their potent and fluid attack. They’ve scored more goals this campaign than any club other than Arsenal, Man City, and Liverpool.
Brighton have been punching above their weight all season, but with a run-in that includes away matches against Arsenal and Newcastle and a home fixture with Manchester City, they could be in for a rough finish. No matter what happens, however, expect Brighton to be able to sneak at least one into the Arsenal net.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
