2025 NFL MVP Way Too Early Odds, Best Bets, & Value Picks

The 2024 NFL season was all wrapped up last week with the Philadelphia Eagles’ big win in Super Bowl 59 over the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. A few days before that, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen won his first NFL MVP award in controversial fashion.

Will we have a race as contentious as the one we had between Allen and Lamar Jackson last year again in 2025? Check out our predictions for the top players on the 2025 NFL MVP odds board, as well as our favorite value picks and long shots based on the best NFL betting odds we’re seeing.

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

2025 NFL MVP Way Too Early Betting Odds

The AFC’s New “Big 4”

The AFC having a so-called “Big 4” tier of top QBs—Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen—is an idea that has really taken root in the NFL consciousness. That’s proven by the fact that those four guys have the shortest odds on the 2025 MVP odds board on most Canadian betting sites. While some may scoff at the new collective nickname, they seemed to have earned it.

They have combined to win the last three straight MVPs, as well as five of the last seven, with an Aaron Rodgers double the only thing interrupting their dominance as a group. The only one of the quartet who has yet to win an NFL MVP award, Joe Burrow, could be the best bet to do it in 2025.

If it wasn’t for a porous defense that couldn’t stop an 80-year-old with a walker last year, Burrow would have made last year’s MVP race one of the three-horse variety. He nearly won a QB triple crown, leading the NFL in passing yards (4,918, nearly 300 more than the next closest guy) and passing touchdowns (43), but finished 4th in completion percentage, at 70.6.

He will no doubt have the Chases, both Ja’Marr and Brown, back in the fold. He has also been very vocal in terms of pushing the oft-cheap ownership of the Bengals to invest in elite WR2 Tee Higgins as well as 2024 NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson. If they swing both of those moves and finally draft the right pieces to fix their offensive line, Burrow should put up even better numbers in 2025.

If the defense doesn’t improve, Burrow won’t win, however. The MVP has to play for a top team. However, new defensive coordinator Al Golden could bring some juice from Notre Dame. Hendrickson’s return plus a couple more additions through free agency (Cincy has about $50 million to play with) and the draft (they pick 17th) could make the defense average, which would be enough to make these +850 odds on Burrow to win MVP very intriguing indeed. For our money, Joe Burrow is the best value bet on the board right now.

However, you can never count out the other three. Lamar Jackson will always put up MVP numbers, so it’s really about who will win the AFC North between him and Burrow. Josh Allen finally got his long-awaited trophy, though many believed he didn’t really deserve it, which means he’s unlikely to get any more sympathy votes any time soon.

Patrick Mahomes would probably be the most interesting choice after Burrow. He’s going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder after that ghastly Super Bowl performance. He still has Andy Reid. His receiving corps finally looks pretty darn good when healthy: Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown. At +750 the value isn’t ideal, but we would not be surprised if Mahomes puts up some career highs next year. 

Fun Long Shots

• Caleb Williams, QB, CHI (+3,300): With Ben Johnson in town, Caleb Williams should take a big step forward. And if he does—and the Bears solve their offensive line—the rest of that roster looks good enough to set Williams up for some hardware. 

• Baker Mayfield, QB, TB (+3,300): He had 4,500 yards and 41 TDs last year while completing 71+ percent of his passes. If he can just reduce those interceptions, he should be in the mix this year. 

• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA (+4,000): We’re not sold on him come January, but from September to December, he has more than enough firepower to put up MVP numbers if he can stay healthy. 

• Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF (+15,000): A running back going for 2,000 yards isn’t good enough to win the MVP award anymore. Maybe a dual-threat back like CMC going for 2,500-2,600 scrimmage yards and 30 TDs might do the trick? At +15,000, it’s worth a fun dart throw.