2025 NBA MVP New Year's Odds & Predictions

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
30 Dec 24
NBA
2025 NBA MVP New Year's Odds & Predictions

It’s time to gear up for the second half of the NBA season as we turn the page to 2025. We’ve still get a very competitive race, with no player offering minus odds yet. It’s once again a two-horse race at the top, however. While it’s the same guys jockeying—Denver’s Nikola Jokic and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—it’s a much tighter battle right now than it was last season.

Highlights

  • The Joker and SGA are leading the way with identical +130 odds
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only other player with a shot according to the odds
  • AD and Ant-Man offer high ceilings and intriguing long shot odds
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All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

2025 NBA MVP Betting Odds

Player (Team)

June 2024 Odds

December 29 Odds

Nikola Jokic (DEN)

+400

+130

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

+650

+130

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)

+650

+500

Jayson Tatum (BOS)

+1,400

+1,400

Victor Wembanyama (SA)

+2,000

+6,000

Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK)

N/A

+7,500

Anthony Edwards (MIN)

+1,200

+15,000

Stephen Curry (GS)

+4,000

+15,000

Anthony Davis (LAL)

N/A

+15,000

Ja Morant (MEM)

N/A

+15,000

Donovan Mitchell (CLE)

N/A

+15,000

Jalen Brunson (NYK)

+2,200

+15,000

Kevin Durant (PHO)

N/A

+15,000

June-December Odds Movement Notes

  • Jayson Tatum was in the middle of the pack at +1,400 back in June, and he’s in the middle of the pack at +1,400 in December. That’s consistency partner.
  • Victor Wembanyama was tied for 8th on the odds board back in June. His odds have tripled from +2,000 to +6,000 since then, but he’s now 5th on the odds board.
  • Apart from Embiid, the top three on the odds board have remained the same over the past six months.
  • SGA has seen his NBA MVP probability rise more than anyone in the race.

The Frontrunners: Joker or SGA?

Nikola Jokic is in pole position to win an unprecedented fourth MVP in five years, currently sitting as the odds-on favorite to win at most NBA betting sites. If you’re looking at Jokic’s MVP resume for this campaign so far, all the individual stats you could ask for are there.

He’s tied for 2nd in the NBA with 30.8 points per game, he’s tied for 3rd in rebounds with 12.5, and he’s 3rd in assists with 9.5. He’s even top five in steals at 1.7 per game, and his 57/50/79 shooting split considering his volume is just bonkers. That shooting line also results in a true shooting percentage that’s tied for 4th among players taking 10+ shots per game. He’s even top 10 in assist to turnover ratio among players averaging 30+ minutes.

Meanwhile, his main competition, the Canadian midrange cook Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has also been putting up some pretty darn good numbers too. He’s also averaging 30.8 points a game, go figure, but elsewhere he’s a bit behind the Big Honey.

SGA’s numbers don’t paint a player that’s nearly as versatile or efficient as the Joker, but he does have one thing going for him: he’s the best player on the best team. They’re the top team in the West and just a couple of games behind the Cavs in the East, but that shouldn’t last much longer. The Nuggets are just 17-13, way down in 8th in the West.

That’s eight games behind OKC, which also lands them in the play-in. Unless Jokic does something historic like Russell Westbrook did in 2017, he can’t win the MVP as an 8th seed. He can have the greatest stats in the world, but if the Nuggets remain this far behind the Thunder, it’s SGA’s 30.8 a game that are going to matter more to voters. SGA is the pick here over the Big Cevapi at +130 odds apiece.

Who Else Has A Chance?

The only other player with a real chance right now is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is the only man scoring more points per game (32.7) than the aforementioned pair. Online betting sites are saying that he’s still in the race, and at +500 odds, he’s offering by far the best value on the board. The Greek Freak, like the Joker, has all the individual numbers to deserve the award, his Bucks just need to catch up.

Jayson Tatum is also there at +1,400, but it just doesn’t seem like voters love him, and he’s not exactly the most likable player anyway. Not to mention having a guy like Jaylen Brown right there kind of removes the “V” from your MVP case. Victor Wembanyama is down at +6,000 and obviously just a fun hypothetical, but this just shows how much potential the big fella’s got already at 20 years of age.

Long Shots

  • Donovan Mitchell (+15,000) - If he can boost his numbers to 27 points, six rebounds, and six assists a game while leading the Cavaliers to the best record, he’d have to be in the conversation.
  • Anthony Davis (+15,000) - Anthony Davis has always had MVP potential, and he’s clearly the best player on his team now. He just needs to lead the Lakers to a top three finish and put up a handful of marquee performances.

Anthony Edwards (+15,000) - He’s been saddled with a couple of tough teammates this year, but if Ant can lock up defensively and get the Wolves out of the play-in convo and into the No. 1 seed convo, these odds could pay off big.

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Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.

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